The Apple Fiscal Q4 Survival Guide

Sunday, October 9, 2011 — Last quarter, we put together a massive guide covering everything you needed to know to capitalize on Apple’s fiscal Q3 2011 results released on July 19, 2011. We nailed almost every single aspect of that quarter and we’ll probably do the same thing for fiscal Q4 as well. The material outlined in this “Fiscal Q3 Earnings Compendium” and in the “Mastering Apple’s Performance Post-Earnings” is still very much relevant to Apple’s fiscal Q4.

In fact, many of the same principals and data are directly applicable to fiscal Q4 and we will be using a lot of the same data. We will also be adding to that data. In chapter 1, we outline the basic conclusions we were able to draw regarding Apple’s stock performance based on a very detailed analysis of the historical record. It is important that you familiarize yourself with those axioms if you want to get really comfortable in understanding how Apple performs on the release of its earnings. Most investors are completely in dark when it comes to what to expect heading into Apple’s report. This page will shed quite a lot of light on what Apple is likely to do when it reports earnings.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt runs a very exhaustive earnings preview covering what the very best in the industry believe Apple is going to report when it releases its results. For the most part, those analysts are very good at forecast Apple’s earnings. But where they fall short, and where Bullish Cross shines, is in being able to predict that which matters most. And that is accurately forecasting what the stock price will do when it release those results. That’s what is precisely where we take over. We all know Apple has great earnings, we all know Apple’s fundamentals are impeccable, we all know the valuation is compelling but very few have the ability to determine how the stock is going to perform. That is what this Apple Fiscal Q4 Survival Guide is all about.

In Fiscal Q3 2011, we predicted that Apple would rally to $400 a share before the end of July (check), we forecasted that Apple would see $404 and change in after-hours when it reported (check), we forecasted that Apple would not see those reactionary highs the following morning (check), we forecasted that Apple would set its high of the day right at the opening bell at around the mid-$390′s (check) and we forecasted that the stock would be lower than that opening price the day after earnings ($396.12) 4-weeks later (check).

In this Fiscal Q4 Survival Guide, we’re going to give that same level of detail, we’re going to be arriving at very concrete conclusions, and we’re confident that we will nail exactly what Apple is going to do when it reports its Fiscal Q4 results like we did with Fiscal Q3. We will get this right in about 8 out of every 10 quarters. We will nail precisely what Apple is going to do ahead of and after its results in about 80% of the cases. Our analysis will miss something once every five quarters if that.

FYE 2011 Earnings Models
Fiscal Q4 2011
FYE 2011 Full-Year Outlook

FYE 2012 Earnings Models
Fiscal Q1 2012
Fiscal Q2 2012
Fiscal Q3 2012
Fiscal Q4 2012
FYE 2012 Full-year Outlook

The Fiscal Q4 Survival Guide Table of Contents
1. Chapter 1: Should we hold Apple into Q4 Earnings? (October 10, 2011)
2. Chapter 2: Analyzing Apple’s Stock Performance by Quarter Type (October 10, 2011)
3. Chapter 3: How Pre-Earnings Performance Impacts Post-Earnings Performance (October 11, 2011)
4. Chapter 4: How Apple Performs from Earnings to Friday’s Close (October 17, 2011)
5. Chapter 5: The Apple November Doldrums (October 15, 2011)
6. Chapter 6: Fiscal Q4 Options Premiums Performance Expectations (October 17, 2011)
7. Chapter 7: When to Hedge & Why (October 17, 2011)
8. Chapter 8: Analyzing the October Leg of the Bullish Cross 10-Bagger Investment Strategy (October 15, 2011)
9. Chapter 9: Getting Ready for January Expiration
10. Chapter 10: Surviving the Apple Fiscal Q4 Miss-Bomb (October 18, 2011)

The Fiscal Q3 Earnings Compendium
1. Chapter 1: Fiscal Q3 Earnings Estimates: June 20, 2011
2. Chapter 2: Understanding Option Premiums Ahead of Earnings Part 1: July 13, 2011
3. Chapter 3: Understanding Option Premiums Ahead of Earnings Part 2: July 14, 2011
4. Chapter 4: Here’s how the stock will react on earnings Part 1: July 17, 2011
5. Chapter 5: Here’s how the stock will react on earnings Part 2: July 18, 2011
6. Chapter 6: How to position ahead of earnings Part 1: July 18, 2011
7. Chapter 7: How to position ahead of earnings Part 2: July 18, 2011
8. Chapter 8: Hedge at the Open: July 19, 2011
9. Chapter 9: Why Apple’s Going to $400 after earnings: July 20, 2011
10. Chapter 10: A lesson in why Call-Spreads & Hedging are far Superior to Selling: July 26, 2011

Mastering Apple’s Performance Post-Earnings
1. Chapter 1: The Details of Apple’s Performance Post-Earnings: July 24, 2011
2. Chapter 2: Apple’s 1-Week Performance Post-Earnings: July 27, 2011
3. Chapter 3: Apple’s 2-Week Performance Post-Earnings: August 4, 2011
4. Chapter 4: Apple’s 3-Week Performance Post-Earnings: August 10, 2011
5. Chapter 5. Apple’s 4-Week Performance Post-Earnings: August 17, 2011