The Apple Fiscal Q1 2012 Earnings Compendium

Sunday, January 22, 2012 — For Apple’s fiscal Q3 and fiscal Q4 2011 earnings, we put together a very significant body of work covering anything and everything related to Apple’s earnings. And as many of you know, this isn’t merely just an earnings preview covering what we believe Apple will report in earnings. In fact, that only really makes up one solitary chapter in the multi-chapter report covering everything earnings. Instead, we’ve focused our analysis with the goal of precisely determining how Apple’s stock price is likely to preform in and around its quarterly earnings.

This might include analyzing how the stock tends to perform in the 5-weeks following its earnings results. As many of you here already know, Apple tends to see significantly lower prices exactly 4 to 5 weeks from its opening price the day after earnings.

It may also include how we feel the stock is likely to perform right after it releases its results. As we’ve hammered home in the past, Apple has a tendency to gap-up in the following trading sessions after it reports. While there are quarters where Apple does sell-off after earnings as Apple investors witnessed in fiscal Q4 2011, in the vast majority of the cases, Apple tends to move higher after the results. And that’s because in most cases, Apple’s earnings tend to blowout expectations.

For fiscal Q1 2012, we’re going to keep things simple. We’re simply going to expand on the analysis we’ve already published in fiscal Q3 and fiscal Q4. As many of you know, the analysis we did in fiscal Q3 and fiscal Q4 didn’t really only apply to Q3 and Q4. Quite the contrary. The Fiscal Q4 Survival Guide and the Fiscal Q3 Earnings Compendium is still very much relevant and timely. The analysis applies to all quarters. In fact, even if we didn’t publish an Apple Fiscal Q1 2012 Earnings Compendium, you could find everything you needed to know about what Apple is likely to do in fiscal Q1 by merely reading the fiscal Q4 survival guide. In fact, only 1 or 2 chapters in that survival guide has anything to do with Q4 at all. It’s mostly an analysis of how Apple tends to trade around earnings, period.

So I very much advise that every single Bullish Cross subscriber read every single chapter listed in each of these table of contents below. You would be very wise to read that analysis as it covers very critical information regarding Apple’s stock performance. This analysis is what separates the average Bullish Cross member from the average retail investor. This analysis puts the average investor at a distinct advantage over the market as whole. We’re merely only going to expand slightly on what is already published in fiscal Q4 survival guide. In fact, we’re going to keep the Fiscal Q1 earnings compendium focused mostly on the fiscal Q1 specific environment and assume everyone is fully aware of the data published in the fiscal Q4 survival guide. Enjoy.

The Fiscal Q1 Earnings Compendium
1. Chapter 1: Apple Fiscal Q1 2012: The Biggest Earnings Blowout in History (January 22, 2011)
2. Chapter 2: A Reminder of the Basic Apple’s Earnings-Performance Related Axioms (January 23, 2011)
3. Chapter 3: Apple’s Stock Performance in Past Fiscal Q1′s
4. Chapter 4: The Bottom-Line: Here’s what Apple will Probably do on Earnings
5. Chapter 5: Here’s Exactly How to Play Apple’s Earnings

The Fiscal Q4 Survival Guide Table of Contents
1. Chapter 1: Should we hold Apple into Q4 Earnings? (October 10, 2011)
2. Chapter 2: Analyzing Apple’s Stock Performance by Quarter Type (October 10, 2011)
3. Chapter 3: How Pre-Earnings Performance Impacts Post-Earnings Performance (October 11, 2011)
4. Chapter 4: How Apple Performs from Earnings to Friday’s Close (October 17, 2011)
5. Chapter 5: The Apple November Doldrums (October 15, 2011)
6. Chapter 6: Fiscal Q4 Options Premiums Performance Expectations (October 17, 2011)
7. Chapter 7: When to Hedge & Why (October 17, 2011)
8. Chapter 8: Analyzing the October Leg of the Bullish Cross 10-Bagger Investment Strategy (October 15, 2011)
9. Chapter 9: Getting Ready for January Expiration
10. Chapter 10: Surviving the Apple Fiscal Q4 Miss-Bomb (October 18, 2011)

The Fiscal Q3 Earnings Compendium
1. Chapter 1: Fiscal Q3 Earnings Estimates: June 20, 2011
2. Chapter 2: Understanding Option Premiums Ahead of Earnings Part 1: July 13, 2011
3. Chapter 3: Understanding Option Premiums Ahead of Earnings Part 2: July 14, 2011
4. Chapter 4: Here’s how the stock will react on earnings Part 1: July 17, 2011
5. Chapter 5: Here’s how the stock will react on earnings Part 2: July 18, 2011
6. Chapter 6: How to position ahead of earnings Part 1: July 18, 2011
7. Chapter 7: How to position ahead of earnings Part 2: July 18, 2011
8. Chapter 8: Hedge at the Open: July 19, 2011
9. Chapter 9: Why Apple’s Going to $400 after earnings: July 20, 2011
10. Chapter 10: A lesson in why Call-Spreads & Hedging are far Superior to Selling: July 26, 2011

Mastering Apple’s Performance Post-Earnings
1. Chapter 1: The Details of Apple’s Performance Post-Earnings: July 24, 2011
2. Chapter 2: Apple’s 1-Week Performance Post-Earnings: July 27, 2011
3. Chapter 3: Apple’s 2-Week Performance Post-Earnings: August 4, 2011
4. Chapter 4: Apple’s 3-Week Performance Post-Earnings: August 10, 2011
5. Chapter 5. Apple’s 4-Week Performance Post-Earnings: August 17, 2011