APPLE HAS PROBABLY BOTTOMED
TRADES TODAY
None.
MODEL PORTFOLIOS CURRENT POSITIONS
1. The Bullish Cross Apple Model Portfolio
See portfolio.
Enter Portfolio Here
2. The Bullish Cross SPY Model Portfolio
None.
Enter Portfolio Here
3. The Bullish Cross Long-Term Portfolio
Please see the portfolio.
Enter Portfolio Here
4. The Apple Common Stock Model Portfolio
1. Apple Long-Term Position: 1,175 shares x $451.71 = $530,759.25
2. Apple Trading Position: None.
Cash = $588,326.90
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KEY POSITIONS ON WATCH
Positions “On Watch” are those positions which we are considering. It doesn’t mean we are taking these positions for sure. We are just entertaining the idea.
1. The Bullish Cross Apple Model Portfolio
None.
2. The Bullish Cross SPY Model Portfolio
None.
3. The Bullish Cross Long-Term Portfolio
None.
4. The Apple Common Stock Model Portfolio
None.
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THE LIVE BLOG 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM
9:33 AM — I really don’t know why the Wash Sale rules keep coming up over and over and over again. We’ve beaten this discussion to death. It’s not that complicated. Go ask an accountant. My experience is that different strike prices even on the same expiration do not trigger a wash sale event. Different strike dates almost certainly do not. That has been my personal experience. But I’m not an accountant and can’t give accounting or tax advice. So go get an accountant. One that knows the situation well. Because you are going to get different opinions. It’s how you present it to the IRS. Really it just comes down to that. So get more than one opinion on the matter.
Now as I explained yesterday, Apple is in its final stages of its correction. And I do think that people are starting to get out of hand and I do think that the comments are starting to get way too out of control. First, I’m going to start extremely moderating. Then if that doesn’t work, I will suspending commenting until Apple begins its rebound. That’s because I can see the set-up unfold not just with Apple, but with the whole market, and it’s not much longer. So if you make extreme remarks today, you’re going to get suspended until Apple recovers. It’s as simple as that.
Next on the agenda is the market. As we explained yesterday, the $NYMO hit extremes. Which suggests we should be in for one big rebound at a minimum. Actually, this can go one of two ways. We can see the market slides for two to three more sessions causing the $NYMO to hit an all-time low like we saw at the May 18-21 bottom. That is one way things can go. The other way things can go is the market can set-up for a big rebound and then have another pull-back with $NYMO positive divergence.
Last time the market did this, Apple took off on the first rebound and ignored the second pull-back by the market. Ok so that is that. Now when it comes to Apple, as you should know by now, the low $530′s has been huge support for Apple. $533 would be a double-bottom for the stock. You can see it here. A breakout above $555.00 would make it a w-recovery. Now why is this one more likely to work? Because Apple is so extremely oversold this time that it is putting some support under the stock now. You’re not seeing the -20 bleeding that we have been seeing anymore. That stopped last Thursday with that extreme session. Here it is on the hourly. You want to see Apple hold this line:
9:47 AM — we are basically looking for Apple to do the following. First we need it to hold $533 and then take this direction. If it plays out like this, then the rebound has started. It’s as simple as that. Right now, Apple is in the process of testing its lows to see if there is any support there i.e. is anyone there to buy the stock? That’s what we are going through right now:
10:00 AM — So far Apple isn’t looking good right now. It does need to regain the $534 level before the end of the session. Ideally, the stock will recover by session end to close green. But that’s ideal. But even if it doesn’t do so, I just don’t see how the stock could continue to the downside being so extremely oversold as it is right now. Apple is at a 25 RSI on the daily right now and trading at exactly a 12 P/E ratio right now. They are now treating Apple as if it is a distressed equity. I just don’t see that to be the case. For there to be no elasticity to oversold conditions, it literally means the market believes that Apple’s stock is over. That it’s going to zero. Does anyone here believe that? Because that’s the only kind of stock that doesn’t respond to oversold conditions. Thus, right now, even if Apple were to “break down” below its triple bottom area, where is it going to go exactly at at a 25 RSI and a 12 P/E ratio? That’s the question. If it breaks down, you’re talking about going to a 19 RSI? 11.8 P/E?
10:36 AM — Alright. So we have some great news. I truly think this might be it. And we will find out in the next 23 minutes. Apple is currently trading under a -4M Chaikin Oscillator on the 60M. Now listen to me closely here. The one indicator that has worked on every single leg in this correction has been the 60M Chaikin Oscillator. Anytime Apple has closed out the hour at or under -4M, it has lead to a short-term bottom and a +20 to +30 point rebound.
Well a +20 to +30 rebound from here would mean an intermediate-term bottom for the stock. So we badly badly need Apple to close this hour at a -4M Chaikin Oscillator. I really do think that would do it. It could be unfolding all right now. Really we want to see $529 at the close of the hour:
10:41 AM — well with this rebound up to $531.70, Apple ChiOsc has risen to -3.6M. We want -4M. Remember, a -4M = an immediate +20. An immediate +20 = double-bottom confirmed. Double-bottom confirmed = an immediate +35. An immediate +35 = momentum. Momentum = Apple $650. Apple $650 = we all exit unscathed. That’s the bottom line.
So for once in my life, PLEASE FOR THE LOVE EVERYTHING GOOD AND JUST IN THE WORLD! SOMEONE SELL APPLE DOWN TO $529.00 FOR THE NEXT 17 MINUTES!
10:50 AM — just 10 more minutes. We’re at -4.8M right now. Just hold for 10 more minutes.
10:55 AM — Alright. It’s coming down to the wire. Now if the market can just please hold Apple down for 5 more minute, I think we would get an early Thanksgiving present. We’re at -4.65 right now. Just so you know, if Apple pushes up to $531, it will ruin the party. So we sort of need it to just stay down here for the close of the hour. Then it can do whatever it wants.
10:56 AM — in case you were wondering just how accurate this indicator has been in this particular correction — not to mention all of the previous ones — take a look at this chart here. This shows each time Apple has fallen to -4M chaikin Oscillator. Notice anything? It has happened exactly 5 times in this correction. In four of those instances, Apple began a $20 rebound starting on the very next hour. In one instance, it traded sideways for a few hours first and then began a $20 rebound. The rebounds were each anywhere from $20 to $32 in length. This is a short-term indicator. Now why is it so damn important today. Because it’s a Franz Ferdinand. It can spark a chain of events that can lead to the bottom for Apple.
11:01 AM — Alright. We got what we wanted. I’m feeling pretty good right now. I think I’m going to just take it easy for the rest of the day. I know in my heart of hearts where we stand now. Apple has bottomed. It’s official. Here is the closing of the Chaikin Oscillator on the hour:
Apple hit a FREAKING -4.9M Chaikin Oscillator. Prepare for battle. I think this is going to spark a chain of events. First, we’re going to get a $20 to $30 rebound. That $20 to $30 rebound will make it look like Apple has formed a double-bottom and w-recovery. If it pushes through the $555 area, it is a +30 upside target. $590 would be the first place to go. If Apple gains that much momentum, we can be at $600 by next Friday. That would easily put us in position to have Apple at $650 by mid-December. And if that happens, the $655 – $705 spread will be near $15 to $20 a contract. That’s how this happens. This isn’t the reason for the bottom. It’s merely just a spark. Franz Ferdinand.
11:11 AM — by the way, don’t expect it to be an immediate thing. The mark just set everything into motion. I’m fairly confident we will see the beginnings of a larger rebound sometime during this session. Sometimes it can be delayed by a few trading hours, in most cases the rebound begins on the very next trading hour. What does that mean? It means the next trading hourly bar is green. Higher than the last. And we tend to get this for about 10-14 green bars. That’s what I’m looking for here to spark a larger rebound.
12:13 PM — I have a call in a moment. But a few things. Apple’s Chaikin Oscillator got down to -6 which is insanity. And the NYSE McClellan Oscillator briefly touched -100. It’s at 99.55 right now. I’ll be back in a bit. A -100 $NYMO is a huge deal. And so is Apple at -6 Chaikin Oscillator. Oh and by the way, Apple has fallen under a 12 P/E ratio.
The $NYMO is now at 100.43.
2:01 PM — I just got my white 64GB iPad Mini LTE in just now. I wonder if it is heavy enough as an anchor to tie around my neck when I chuck it off the Vincent Thomas bridge. I probably should have bought an iPad 4 for that.
2:08 PM — The Chaikin Oscillator just closed at 5.31 for Apple on the 60M. So we’re still at rock-bottom levels on the ChiOsc. Rebound hasn’t begun yet. However, the $NYSE McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) did inch back up to -86 which is unfortunate. I was sort of hoping that it would close the session out at -100. I did hit as low as -108 intraday. Who knows. We still have two hours. Maybe we get it to close at -100. That would set-up Friday for a low/bottom and next week for the rebound week.
2:51 PM — It’s very possible that we could get another close of under -4M on the 60M Chaikin Oscillator going into the last hour of trading. Again, this will all catch up with the stock. Look I can see a lot of people panicking here. All I can really do is keep publishing the information, it’s up to you to read through it and decide whether you think it’s worth anything. You don’t have to share my opinion on the matter. In fact, why does my conclusion or opinion even matter? Why? The information is what drives me to the conclusion that I’m drawn to. So if you think the information I’m providing is B.S., then why would you arrive at the same conclusion? Just because I’m reaching that conclusion? What kind of nonsense is that.
If we’re at a murder trial and the prosecution presents a weak case and I say, “he didn’t do it.” It should be up to each jury member to arrive at their own conclusions. Today, Apple has spent the better of the session trading under a -4M Chaikin Oscillator on the 60M chart. That’s a near-term indicator. I view positively. Why? Because it hasn’t given me reason to believe it won’t work here. In this exact sell-off, it has worked 5 other times. Why not now? On top of that, we know that a +30 move in Apple could spark something much much bigger. So I choose to be optimistic. You can brush the evidence aside and choose to rely on something else. You have to choose for yourself. We have 3 minutes until the last hour of trading. During that last hour, Apple could be going in with a -5M Chaikin Oscillator. That I view as a positive. On top of that, the SPY looks like it’s forming an inverted head & shoulders on the day. And the $NYMO touched down to -100. It has since come off of that level. But this is where I stand. Do what you like.
4:01 PM – well I know some people here do care about where things stands on the technical landscape. So I will post it. I know many of you don’t want to hear it, so just ignore it if you want. But here is the situation at the close today. First, the $NYMO closed at -92. It’s low, but not a record low or anything. The market recovery today sort of brought that back down from that earlier -100 print. That final number will record about an hour from now. Apple has more or less spent the entire day under a -4M Chaikin Oscillator on the hourly chart. That more or less suggests that a huge rebound is coming as early as tomorrow even. It will probably be at least $20.00 maybe more. See here:
Apple is also trading at under a 12 P/E ratio at 11.9 or something crazy like that. I can’t imagine even the most skeptical person would ever imagine in a million years that Apple would trade down to an 11.9 P/E ratio. But here we are.
The SPY, QQQ, DJIA and AAPL are all very overbought. The SPY 60M Chaikin Oscillator, like Apple, hit rock bottom prices earlier today. This feels like a bottom for the exact chain of events I have outlined. A rebound up to the $555.00 level could lead to a breakout. If Apple does breakout above that level, it will spark a quick move to $600. That’s the bottom-line. It’s hard to see right now, but that’s the case I’m making. I can post each of the SPY, QQQ, and DIA charts, but they all look the same. Really oversold:
http://www.trade-guild.net/
Hope he isn’t right?
At 350 buying the entire company would be a good move for a Saudi prince. 5 times earning. 120 billion in cash. That would mean 3 times earnings if you took the cash out.
Just tell me you think we will trade up to 620 by January, I have lost hope I am close to blowing out!
I couldn’t tell you if he’s right about but not sure about his MSFT/aapl analogy and credibility . He says MSFT was at$150 and now is $26.83, just to show how apple could fall to exreme levels too. Problem looks like he doesnt include splits- including these, 1 share of MSFT in 1986 is equivalent to 288 shares today. Last it was $150 was about 1996, and since then they’ve had something like 4 2-1 splits. So without spending too much time on the math, if he were including splits MSFT would actually today be the equivalent of 214-600 depending on which $150 date is used-actually doesn’t seem too bad….and definitely doesn’t support a “aapl could do this” point.
MSFT splits are below….
http://www.microsoft.com/investor/InvestorServices/FAQ/default.aspx#section_4
Thx for reply
Cramer on “How the market can be manipulated” (interesting video):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOS8QgAQO-k
“who cares about fundamentals…several weeks from now people will realize it’s [news/rumors] a lie, who cares…it’s a pretty good game.”
Fund managers are booking their profits and there are no buyers. Read the article below.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-stock-hit-panic-selling-191928587.html
the trouble is we are looking for rational behavior from irrational people.
Andy,
Can you please read this article? They say growth will be slowed 25% during 2013 and 15% during 2014.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/renaissance-technologies-dumps-these-top-name-stocks.html/
Horace wrote a piece about this a few months ago.
For as long as anyone can remember, next years AAPL growth has been 25% and the year after’s has been 15%.
Just had dinner with a guy who road some book that said human beings are incapable of envisioning exponential growth and can only think in linear terms. Maybe that’s a small part of the problem
Andy
Have a good weekend. Relax. Find something positive.
We need you here in good form on Monday to keep this show on the road.
Shit. It’s only Thursday.
Well. Whatever.
That was funny.
We are all losing our minds.
Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty is another analyst not buying into Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) bear trend continuing much longer. According to the analyst, issues of product supplies as well as gross margins — two of the main causes of investor concern — will be sorted out soon and lead to a surge in sales in the first quarter of the next calendar year, if not in this three-month period.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/analyst-apple-will-be-back-on-track.html/
Fatherof4: I saw your post earlier in the day about big boys buying soon – any inputs you picked up on what the word is on the floor about where the price will be @ Christmas or in New Year timeframe? Thanks for sharing that tip – much appreciated! Hope is all we have…
BT-
Regarding this whole issue of whether the the technicals work or not, isn’t one of the main tenants,of technicals that you follow the trend and don’t pick bottoms and wait for confirmation and most importantly, respect support levels?
I though they was what technicals were all about? What am I missing? Help me out bro.
Why didn’t we sell when it went below 200 day? Why didn’t we sell when it retested 200 day?
Is it that the short term technicals are still working, but long term are not?
Is it just the wrong time frames?
Does Andy even look at weekly and monthly charts?
Jack – the only reason I believed in TA at all was because of Andy. I have seen him call market bottoms and apple bottoms to the tee for more than a year until this past couple months where it hasn’t worked at all. The only reason I loaded up whatever cash I had left in 620-630 area is because of his track record with TA till then. He called the 200DMA breach last year at 320 perfectly – it was my 1st couple weeks at BC and I was blown away, it only got better till it went bust recently. I haven’t seen him use weekly or monthly charts with Apple at all but then the daily worked perfectly till it stopped working…guess, the hedgies and the market figured him out man…BC & BCRAM success & size in option market has really been our enemy man – all IMHO.
I don’t buy any if the conspiracy theories. Most funds are not even aware of BCRAM.
And the options market is not driving leaps. Is very easy to look like a genius when you pick a stock like apple in secular growth trend. it works until it doesn’t. This is obvious and lots of us knew enough to come to apple. Just look at the p/e, growth rate and visit the store.
We all already had the foresight to come to Apple on our own. We came here for help with technicals. Than means entry points and more importantly- exit points
But we didn’t follow any of the rules. Basic shit like stops!
We all knew better. And many if us like myself were actually worried about January and the fiscal cliff. But whenever we spoke up about politics the cool kids and Andy cheerleader said, no place for that here and this board is not about politics
When we expressed fear about January, we were told we were broken and we can’t be helped. Was this language helpful in anyway?
Well, I do agree that this board didn’t manage dissenting voices properly – remember Davidro? Ppl started threatening me for banishment or whatever and I saw many freakouts come out of the closet today including AS. Or, even during Jan – March parabola AS and Troof were pretty much frowned upon for yelling about upside risk. Guess, we are paying the price for not considering alternate views which were nothing but highlighting upside or downside risk and we didn’t hedge for either of them in the 2 parabolas that killed the year. Ppl hedge equity positions and we didn’t do that with large option portfolios – anyway, a very expensive lesson learnt in life. Hope for a brighter future still persists..hang in there! The rally will be rip your face rally..I get the feeling that stars are aligning for a non stop rally till year end very soon…if OI is not an issue, then we get to 650 by Jan expiration.
Jack raises valid points, AZ is not the only opinion that matters, although, I do generally tend to weight his suggestions more than others.
I raised this point as well in sept. to be hooted down. Also the top was marked by a few dojis. There was a negative divergence on some indicators. I told my friends to sell as soon as apple hit 700. I should hear my own voice, and like Dylan says trust myself.
I too have seen Andy kill it with technical analysis and became a believer that when used in conjunction with other info, it can be very powerful. I think this correction is a black swan event. We’ve seen the Nasdaq rebalance and the market meltdown but never the capital gains tax/ fiscal cliff thing. Does that mean it’s true? No, but fear-based perception can make it is self-fulfilling prophesy. Do I have any evidence? Only circumstantial and that is consider how much selling it takes to move a $600B company’s stock down 25% in 2 months. That’s a lot of shares and my data-less (worthless?) opinion is that Apple is oversubscribed and many ran to the exit to realize any gain left in 2012 given the current tax rates. Andy has repeatedly said ‘stocks NEVER go straight up or straight down, that they’re are always lines of support and resistance’. This sell off has been straight down and while I understand when Zaky shows the ensuing rally that followed the ‘last five times’, this time COULD be different. Am I saying he’s wrong and technicals are bullshit? No, but when a stock does go straight down, or perfect set ups are violated on top of a record low PE, you know the black swan has come home to roost in your ass.
He was pretty vague and short, just said expect a surprise and not sell my position, will see big buying catching everyone off guard. He said expect big buying next Friday but not to be surprised if we some jump in as soon as tomorrow. I hope he’s right, I know they sold at $700.
When he said don’t sell your position, can share what positions he was referring to? Jan 600-650 and/or 655-705?
I told him I was holding $630-650 and 675-705 all Jan 13. He didn’t give me a price target for Jan. but I told him I was looking to get out he said hold the 630-650 until expiration and if I wanted out of 675-705 wait for a much better price.
Nice – thanks a ton, just helps with some reassurance!
+1000000
So, he wasn’t pushing for you to offload 655-705 either? Nice… This is consistent with what Jack’s source was suggesting as well for Jan exp…we could get a parabola repeat of 200 points that took place from Feb 7th – April 9th…I know this is highly optimistic and all the TA guys are suggesting U recovery and all but who knows…there is exactly the same amount of time left after tomorrow for another 2 month parabola up…it is possible that funds that missed the rally upto 700 this year wanted a tkt to the ride and piled on the sell off created by short term Apple and macro issues and will now ride this baby up all the way into year end and get their better than S&P performance..now that everyone else is freaking out, I might as well turn bullish:-)
Who did you speak with?
I promised not to disclose his name or firm, sorry.
Are you serious father? How big of a fund? Is the guy a PM?
All I will say he is one of the largest funds on Long Island. Please don’t ask me again, that’s more than I should have said already. I hope he is right, I can tell you I feel about 75% better now than I did this morning.
Father, now I feel even better about buying my weeklies earlier today. If it doesn’t work out, it’s all on me, but I did buy because of this. I knew you were serious right when you posted it.
Thx for sharing F4, cause sharing is caring! Keep em comin
Well, I’d say your post has generated lots of excitement. I promise not to pry, and I’m sure we’re all hoping this guy know what he’s talking about, but I really really have to ask just one teeny question:
Just tell me that he currently has electricity, please?
Davidbaraff that is the funniest post of the day.. I had a good laugh
However, surely one fund can’t do damage on it’s own though right? This would have to be some kind of massive buying.
Are you sure if he still has power? Maybe he has no power still or Internet and hasn’t looked at his computer since before Sandy and and Obama became King.
Lol:-) Cut him some slack man…
Ok
Did this contact also tell you that they were going to sell at 700, at around the time it happened?
Apple Analyst Sees $630 Ahead and 4 Stock Insights Making Rounds
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL): Credit Suisse Special Situation Research believes that Apple shares are supported at $520 based on conservative 2013 Street expectations, and it sees an upside at $630 near-term.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/apple-analyst-sees-630-ahead-and-4-stock-insights-making-rounds.html/
Positive article
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-fiscal-cliff-apple-aapl-210305429.html
http://www.t3live.com/
Check out their daily recap video. Talks about upcoming rally in market and Apples potential to get to 570-575 which would be area of shorts to start covering. These guys trade I’m sure subscribing there as well would have helped us tremendously. Also talk about V-recovery vs. U-shaped recovery.
The comment I refer to are in the video from day before
So, what are they advocating here? U or V recovery for Apple after 570 area? The video is too long to watch..
U because of damage but strong move up to 570-575
A 50 point move is not U, right?
That’s just initial move then some backing and filling! Cobra is saying nice bounce coming!
Apple is covered everyday in their daily recap, as well as Spy, GOOG etc.
I might have a little but more life savings / dry powder I’m thinking of putting in for a safe purchase. Looking at either 2014 600s or 2015 700s. They are both selling for around 4700 each.
Any thoughts?
I don’t have faith in the 1000 prediction for next year, but thinking about a conservative 850, the 2014 would be a 5x return and if we think about 1000 the following year, the 2015s would be a 6x return, but with an extra year of waiting (but with also an extra year of security).
Wait. Why run down the hill for one sheep, when you can walk down and have them old.
Be wise, wait!
Have them all.
Jack, if you want Jan/feb 2013 spreads there may be greater risk in waiting than buying at 525 IMO.
I know, I know. I will do it on next rally. We can’t go straight down
I promise I will do it next week. Thx for caring
2015 but wait until the bottom is in.
Tim,
in my opinion there is a lot greater risk in waiting than starting to take positions at 525 especially if one is buying the 2014s.
I bought small amount of feb 520/540s at close today for $9.50. The Q1 numbers are getting stronger by the day, 90 days is plenty of time and I could wake up and see Apple at 540 by 10 AM tomorrow.
(I ‘m just looking for a ‘safe’ double that gets me back to even after Q1.)
Just my opinion, good luck.
I’m amazed that people are buying into 850 as being conservative.
Glad to see you actually picked the ones i told you.
Actually, both are a good compromise as they are cheap, not that much OTM and have a Delta around 0.30-0.40 which will give you a good % reward if your 850 target price will be met. You should go with the one you are the most comfortable with and if we get nice rebound, you could then sell a higher strike close to your target.
We’ve seen the product portfolio for 2013 and it’s amazing. We have not seen the product portfolio of Apple or competitors for 2014. That’s why I would/will go for 2014, not 2015.
You should all read this!!!!!! Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley just gave a thumbs up to Apple iPhone and iPad mini sales beating expectations. This is a big deal considering she timed the announcement at the most likely technical bottom for Apple’s stock. Expect tomorrow for Apple to probably rebound big time. The question will then be which other analysts might speak up and defend Apple. Good news is that the the world’s largest bank analysts could of pushed the stock down further with with ultra pessimistic analysis like they did in late 2008, early 2009. This time they didn’t. The timing and nature of this is very good news.
http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/11/15/apples-iphone-ipad-mini-sales-even-stronger-than-expected—report
this was out already today and the market did not react to it
Came out this morning unless she issued another note tonite which sounds unlikely. Can you check timestamp.
Today 3:56 pm on this article. good, but old news now
Andy, you’ve taken quite the beating lately. I don’t comment often but I have been here since the beginning pretty much. I for one appreciate that you are not perfect (no matter how much we want to believe that you are) and that I alone am ultimately responsible for the position I am in… not you. I think most people on this board are not taking personal responsibility for there own greed when times are/were good and now need to point the finger to someone else… it’s the natural response for people who don’t want to take personal responsibility.
+1
Have I mentioned I love Nick Nansen? Here’s his post from tonight:
http://nanseninvestments.com/2012/11/15/1st-official-bear-warning/
I loved this one…everyone should read this…
Yea. Good one. Bears went too far. They broke into our cabins. They are as greedy as we were a 705.
But fortunately for the bears, they ate me.
They are still eating me while I am alive and watching
Read again on Nansen: “You are not your bank account”.
The problem is that buyers can exhause the money and finaly fail to keep the stock going up, while shorters don’t have this tissue. They will go away when they are overwhelmed by buyers. When will these buyers jump in to rescue us?
Great post!!
I remain hopeful… and I am hopeful today is the start of an inverted head and shoulders on Apple. We have a shoulder at $533, a head formation at $522, neckline at $555. So based on today’s extremes, it plays well to your thesis that we will have a $20-30 bounce, that will be sold into and hopefully bottom again at $533. If that holds, we should be at $588 by late next week or shortly after Thanksgiving. I’m holding tight until end of the month to make any drastic decisions… but I think the setup is there for a $590 print at least by end of this month… but we need a big bounce to $550 area in the next 1-2 sessions to give me some hope in this setup.
Also, the $522 print from today happens to be the neckline of a larger head and shoulders forming on the daily… so hopefully this is the absolute low we see… The bleeding has to stop!!!!
All my technical indicators that have proven foolproof for years have failed! Cant believe AAPL is at 25
on the daily RSI and almost 30 on the weekly….
The current price makes no sense technically or fundamentally. $518 is the next support and then $500. Market oscillators say market will be extremely oversold by Tuesday so I just cant see why
AAPL wont bottom by Tuesday if it has not bottomed already.
my new gravatar
Read “Father’s” post, my best bet is that Apple is going to start rocketing Monday 11/26 thru 11/28. Don’t hit me, I cry easily………:)
When? Naked and waxed? I am sure you are a good sport!
Are you making this this comment because CaIdaGirl is female? You know that’s considered sexual harassment if you are an unattractive guy right?
What century were you born? It is no longer cool to make unwelcomed sexual references.
Tony’s comment was not inappropriate. He was referring to CaidaGirl’s 12:58 post in which she described herself as such. I enjoy her attitude and sense of humour.
Brilliant!
I hate Cobra – says this could still be the very 1st leg down even though we may get a rebound on a hammer or sthg like that…so, where the fuck does 2nd and 3rd leg down take us? Fucking $100 and the co goes private or some shit..this TA crap is just that…crap – works till it does and then it doesn’t!
Stop listening to Cobra. I’m listening to Fatherof4 instead. At least ill get a little bit of sleep tonight that way.
The way I read Cobra is that he is saying since first leg down was so strong that when there is a rebound it will fail, we need true column surge or hammer is something like that then rebound, after rebound which could fail to retest lows ($530 – $525) then, ready to change direction which is currently down. We are ending correction or it appears that way, the b-bands no longer are supporting or offering much support. The market needs to rally, it is closer each day. Don’t expect much friday. B-band referring to daily b-band. No, I believe second leg down would be the failed rebound. Just like what Andy was saying, a W recovery, but there is also a U recovery. If you managed a fund you would be waiting for the price to settle then buy, once that money starts to come in to AAPL the price will go up and any perceived change in direction will bring in more money. Currently the price is settling, I know it’s difficult, it is for all of us, but once it finishes settling then we are fine. We appear to be more towards the end than the beginning or even middle of this settling process. So now we have another person saying $900+ next year, so $800-$1000 appears to be the meat of predictions, funds won’t stay on the sidelines forever not with that kind of return staring them in the face. So this is what Andy is saying, Cobra is saying, and what Fatherof4 is saying. Things are starting to line up. The market will bottom. When it rises it will drag Apple up as well, maybe first leg up, then AAPL will fail, to attempt lows, then it will be able to stand on its own and it will rise unbelievable.
If the market doesn’t go up, it may go down, if it does neither it may go sideways…
Where did you read this?
He read it on Wikipedia
If we get bounce and close in green tomorrow, today’s low will make a bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart. If we continue going south and close in red, the next support would be around 500. I feel it is a faulty strategy to wait for $30 rebound at the cost of >$100 draw down. As the old saying goes, bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughter. It’s a shame if we get wiped out here.
Too late IMO…we are waiting for rebound from 100 points up:-(
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/marketcenters/optionscenter/content/short-term+apple+inc+aapl+traders+dont+have+high+hopes/default.aspx?ID=113714
Just a note, they’re talking about short term traders, which is definitely relevant for sentiment, but a pretty specific timeframe-I think tomorrow’s expiration?
In hindsight, TA was working. There were so many signs on the daily chart that we ignored… I am no way skilled in TA, but going back to look at daily charts it seems like we had a lower high after 705 top, massive H&S breakdown, like 5 bear flag breakdowns, lost 50-100-200 dma, broke all sorts of trend lines, and I am sure many more signs. We just assumed that they were all fake outs because we analyzed it with our bull goggles on.
Not pointing fingers because its not like I knew any better at the time. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
TA always works in hindsight. The tricky part is to get TA to work looking forward.
hmm.. not really. on the way down, many has pointed out the chart stayed bearish and trending down. The difference yes, BC was better on picking the bottom and the stock rebound to ride off the correction. while trend following traders got out when trend went bearish and will not get in to long until the trend reversal is confirmed – that will be a point higher then the bottom and with some TA quantification – such as climb stay above 10mda ..
When apple dropped to 680s – I admit it’s a little difficult to make the decision to get out or not. I am not TA expert so I am not certain how obvious the down tread it was then but I know many did get out. When Apple dropped to mid low 600 – it’s getting harder to cut loss or better it’s bottoming .. The further it drops, the harder it became. So it’s absolutely essential to be able to spot the trend early on and get out early – something we should all discuss more and get batter on . And don’t be afraid to buy back with a higher price.
In the hindsight, that is absolutely correct strategy. Picking the bottoms, picking the tops are all too too risky.
In the hindsight, that is absolutely correct strategy. Picking the bottoms,k picking the tops are all too too risky.
Excellent points. My point about TA looking backwards was far more superficial. I was just implying that, retrospectively, the analysis can more easily fit the already known outcome.
Thanks for sharing Fatherof4. We do appreciate it.
Does everyone talk to each other in the Hedge Fund industry? No secrets?
In Silicon Valley there are literally NO secrets. Information is promiscuous – everyone knows what everyone’s start-up is making, what they’re doing, how they’re doing it, and how much they sold for. I wonder if that’s the same for Hedge Funds. I’ve considered renting a hedge fund hotel (cube), and have looked into it in San Francisco.
Can anyone shed any insight into this? What would be incredibly powerful is if we had contacts in the industry (i.e. Fatherof4 shared some good info here). Information can be powerful.
I’m also appreciative, Fatherof4. A cautionary thought I had was that hedge funds have a lot of power, but if their buying fails to excite the market (mutual funds still selling) they will cut their losses and stop buying. So glad to hear they are about to make a try. Hope they are successful.
Heh Tony and lichu, no worries. All in fun. I should however give the APA a heads up that they should add a new diagnostic category to their service manual: BC Transistory Bi-Polar Syndrome. Do you think I should patent it? Make some money?
A.S.
In regards to people like Doug Kass:
He sold all his stuff between 650-700. Than he spread the rumors about how Apple is a sell. Than he starts buying around 200MA with a tight stop. Once the stop was taken he probably buys in small amounts around every major support level. AND HE WAITS!
Also, unlike BC members – he has time. He just continue buying and averaging down because he knows that there is nothing wrong with Apple. Every day Apple go another $10 he getting even more happy. Think about it. Wouldn’t you do the same if you had his resources – I surely would!
When he and other big traders will accumulate enough at ridiculous prices, than they will create short squeeze and Apple will go 100-150 pts within just few days. On the way up they will sell it all to the shorts. That is how the game works.
Soooo……, don’t even think that Kass will go and try to appear on CNBC. He may but it is in his best interest to wait and buy cheaper and cheaper.
The only question will be if this will happen before or after Jan 13 Opx.
Kass was just on CNBC calling Apple a ‘generational buy’ here.
You call that Kass would not go on CNBC was exactly incorrect.
Up late at night fantasizing about having sold at $705……if only….
Hedge fund star Paul Tudor Jones has made some major position changes, according to his 13F filing day. From Tudor’s third quarter Securities and Exchange Commission disclosure, there were a number of tech stock movements, such as downsizing Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) from 102,925 shares to 9,200, increasing Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) by 150,000, and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) by 100,000; and Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) jumping from 400,000 shares in the second quarter to 649,578.
Yes we have witnessed this, most if not all hedge funds have lightened up, allot. There is only one thing that will bring them back in, profits. So $700 looking back, $800+ looking forward. So those funds that sold around $700 may be the first ones back in, followed, once again, by those funds that didn’t sell at the top.
Jim (squinky) is talking about the black swan.
This is NOT a black swan.
We have three drivers for stock: fundamentals, macro and financial marketplace.
On fundamentals: we had two slowed growth quarters in a row and conservative guidance from CEO for the next quarter. That’s bad. On the good side we have awesome and competitive product portfolio that should mean good total year 2013.
On macro: we have post-election hangover and worries over Europe.
On financial marketplace. Apple is a huge cap, widely owned stock. Apple is still positive on the year so selling made sense for fund managers. Then with stop-loss the forced selling came in. The bigger the herd, the scarier the stampede.
Now, when the bottom really would take place and would rally help us in time…- nobody knows until it happens. Alternative strategies:
- trust Andy’s expertise and wait for his action guidance
- exit into Dec 2012 if you believe Fatherof4 connection
- exit into spring or summer 2013 if you know how to predict funds’ and macro behavior.
- exit into 2014 if you believe in Apple product portfolio and supply capacity
- exit into 2015 if you believe in Apple DNA.
- exit into cash and wait for Apple P/E to be settled into a stable range, then start trading for quarterly doubles as BC original strategy.
What comes to mental health…nobody said it better than Nansen in his latest post Nov 15.
Look into the mirror and repeat after him: “I am not my bank account”.
+1 great summary
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/11/15/apple-gives-up-an-important-threshold-despite-reas.aspx
http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/15/apples-stock-price-is-crashing-and-the-bottom-is-not-in-sight/
Market update
http://drduru.com/onetwentytwo/2012/11/15/t2108-update-121115/
Article says there is no fear in the market now. If fear comes, then market may go down more.
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Thank you for the correction. That is good if fear is at extreme. Market may bounce tomorrow or Monday, hopefully AAPL will bounce from here too. But I have no good feeling about AAPL. It keeps dropping for no reason.
Earlier in the year, we saw market fear far more extreme than right now. Apple handled that fine, from what I recall. The truth is that nobody (at least in the general public) knows what is wrong with AAPL. My guess is that we will not have any resolution until earnings dring which we will either find out (too late) what is rotten, or the market will suddenly awaken from its nightmare. Like in October, my guess is that we are FAR behind the curve on the truth.
Sprint to begin selling Apple’s iPad mini and iPad from retail stores on Friday http://stks.co/iFJA
I still feel it is extremely important for the President and Congressional Leaders to put a positive spin on their first meeting tomorrow assuring the American people that a solution is possible for the fiscal cliff issue, that it will take compromise that both sides acknowledge and that both sides are committed to find a solution quickly and do the necessary work needed. Hopefully, they will agree to work non-stop to complete a bill before the Dec 15th holiday recess. They need to state that the job will be done, sooner than later. this issue needs to get off the front page as soon as possible.
+
Do you know what time Obama has meeting with congress people tomorrow?
iPhone 5 could hit Taiwan stores at the end of November
http://bullishcross.com/2012/11/bullish-cross-live-318/#comments
Correct link
http://tweepmag.com/ChinaBizWatch/ChinaBizWatch.php?a=1&r=167&rt=104976
Well at least AAPL had bottomed….. again….