Bullish Cross Live


1. The Bullish Cross Apple Model Portfolio
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2. The Bullish Cross SPY Model Portfolio
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3. The Bullish Cross Long-Term Portfolio
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4. The Apple Common Stock Model Portfolio
1. Apple Long-Term Position: 1,175 shares x $451.71 = $530,759.25
2. Apple Trading Position: None.
Cash = $588,326.90
Positions “On Watch” are those positions which we are considering. It doesn’t mean we are taking these positions for sure. We are just entertaining the idea.

1. The Bullish Cross Apple Model Portfolio

2. The Bullish Cross SPY Model Portfolio

3. The Bullish Cross Long-Term Portfolio

4. The Apple Common Stock Model Portfolio
THE LIVE BLOG 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM

9:45 AM — good morning. So I decided that there’s no point sitting every every day worrying about where and when Apple will bottom given that (a) I know it will bottom; (b) that this won’t be too far away given how oversold we are and (c) that Apple will see a massive rebound as a result. Partly due to valuation reason and partly due to the whole equal and opposite reaction that I’m expecting out of the stock. Also, we have no precedence for Apple just continuing to go lower or just trade sideways for three months. I see all types of theories and ideas posted in the comment, none of them very good, but I’m going to recover my assets the best way I know how so as to position myself to best capitalize on Apple next year. All I can do here is tell you how I plan to do that. Take it or leave. You can sell today down here at a 27 RSI and roll over to January 2014 spreads and I’m pretty certain there are so many different spreads out there that would lead to a full recovery and then some. But that means you will not only forfeit any chance to make a profit on Apple when there are huge opportunities to do so. So do what you like. I’m waiting for Apple’s rebound which I’m fairly confidence will be very significant. But “what if” as you please. That’s my take. Right now, you can sell your spreads and buy January $9000 – $1000 spreads. They will do fine. You may even get a 50% gain out of it overall.

10:35 AM — This is a full blown crash in Apple. A big concern with Apple that is pretty apparent now as always existing is the lack of knowing that that nearly 90% of people holding Apple have on the company. Most simply just don’t get the fundamentals. So they end-up buying into the “top theory.” The selling that we saw last week has precipitated a lot of fear which has in turn precipitated the selling which has precipitated even more selling. It’s now quite vertical. The selling is straight down at a 90 degree angle. The technicals are obviously off the charts extreme. But that doesn’t really matter now with the stock in full blown crash mode. It is setting up to present a 2009-type opportunity again. Why now? Who knows. It starts with a bunch of fucking idiots deciding to publish a bunch of bullshit on the company which thanks to free speech allow anyone who can type publish whatever unfounded garbage they want to write. But now we have a precedents for what happens when sentiment gets out of hand. That will always be there on every correction. The difference is that in every normal cycle, the sentiment sort of slows down as the stock reaches valuation and technical extremes and the people buy. Here are the technicals today:

Apple hit a 17 RSI on the 60-minute again which tends to suggest a +20 move. I don’t know what good that will do for us here in this environment. The Chaikin Oscillator is at -25 on the daily. But that doesn’t seem to matter. The 14-day Chaikin Oscillator has fallen to 25. But again, so what? Apple is down $100 in 11-sessions. It is down $160 in 33-sessions. That’s a crash. Anyway you look at it. It’s way too much. And everyone is now hyper negative on the stock all based on highly unsubstantiated rumors that even if true, wouldn’t justify such a move down. Consider even if Apple had production delays, it would merely only push out earnings to fiscal Q2. That’s the worst case scenario. So how does that impact annual EPS next year? But it is what it is. If this selling pace continues, Apple would be down to -$50.00 a share in the next 4-weeks.

11:52 AM — Apple is sitting at a 22 RSI on the 60M chart which is an extreme short-term indicator. It has meant a +23 rally in the past. Hurray, we will be back to where we were mid-day yesterday. Basically, at this point, if you want a fleeting chance of being saved, Apple needs to hammer today. That’s plain and simple. Either today is capitulation or it’s just one of a number of days where Apple is crashing for no fundamental basis. So let’s see what happens. I will be not even 1% happy with anything less with a close in the green today. Anything short of that is total garbage.

12:22 PM — Alright. This weekend I’m going to put together a report for getting back to event as it were. Don’t think that the most damaging part of this correction is due to the huge drawdown and probable losses. What really sucks about this is you won’t be able to capitalize on Apple in 2014 as much as we could have without this correction. I’m going to put together a good plan for getting everyone up 100% overall from their original entries. What really pisses me off most about all of this is that it’s fucking morons of epic proportions that has caused this to come to pass. It’s people not knowing a godamn thing about the company or about financials in general or about investing period that has caused this type of selling to occur. Really annoying.

Look. Next year, Apple will run to $1000 a share. There are a lot of reasons for that. I’m going to talk to Horace today and we may co-author a piece on this issue. What that means is that there will be an opportunity to make 20x on the $900 – $1000 spread. In fact, I believe there will be an opportunity to do better than that. There will be a point of exit next year which will allow you to trade out of that spread, wait for a pull-back and then get back in.

You just need to freaking listen to me next time when Apple gets too overvalued and allow it to parabolic away. This consequence that we have in front of us right here is largely due to the fact that Apple went parabolic in January, I advised people to stay away from it and then got hammered huge. I couldn’t afford to do that again. Advise people to get out and Apple continue to an 18 P/E ratio.

I will also explain why it is that this correction has taken us completely by surprise — and trust me it has — why there was very little evidence of it and how we will avert this in the future. Look. Even some of the best most well known traders I talk to every day over text was blindsided by this correction. All of those imbeciles that were arguing that Apple was going back to 500 and are now gloating are really lucky. That’s it. And while it is better to be lucky than smart, to be honest with you, in the long-run, that won’t be the case.

Like this full fuck-tard arguing that Apple is going tback to $430 doesn’t even realize how much cash Apple has on its balance sheet and how much cash it is expect to earn next year. Do you know how incredibly dumb that is?

We’re going to need to roll to 2014 spreads. We’re going to need to be very smart about it. There are two strategies that we will employ next year. We will publish both at Bullish Cross. There’s no point in keeping it secret anymore. One has the potential to produce 32x and the other 25x. But again, they will have to be executed very carefully. What’s more, you are going to have to be extremely nimble and extremely patient.

This is 2008 all over again. Those who were smart were able to recover from it. We will recover from it here at Bullish Cross. You will see an amazing story when it’s all said and done. I promie you most of you will be part of an amazing story. It’s just unfortunate because there was huge opportunity next year and now that will have to be used to recover gains rather than to capitalize on gains after doubling our money on January spreads.

We’re still going to wait for a bounce to exit. But when we do, we will invest in two different plans. Look. Don’t go off and do your own thing. Follow the Apple BC Model Portfolio. We will have to do this carefully. And we can’t all take the same positions. So I will be giving ranges of spreads to consider. But be patient. Once the dust settles, I will get us there. We will reset and start over.

We will publish our plans this weekend and next week. This recovery plan is going to be built exclusively in the BC Apple Model portfolio. We’re not provide commentary or give any advice beyond that.

12:45 PM — the first part of the plan is to sell our spreads at the best possible price we can. That will mean waiting for a rebound. Don’t forget how much time we have in front us. It’s a very long time. We still have 47 trading sessions until expiration. Even if Apple were to rebound 15% over a 20-session period, first that wouldn’t even be that big of a rebound considering the size of the collapse and we would get into the $635 -$640 range. I think we could see the low $600′s early on in the early. Early enough to give us reasonable pricing on our spreads while at the same time keeping 2014 spreads extremely depressed. It will also make April, July and October spreads really depressed. But right now, you could do nothing but wait. If we had less time, I would transition here. But we still have the equivalent of an entry in trading terms.

12:47 PM — second part of the plan is considering the merits of trading quarterly spreads throughout the year with a 50% allocation and 2014 spreads with a 50% allocation. Doing so will produce huge results. With the right 2014 spreads, you could end-up producing 20x and with the quarterly allocation, a compounded return basis has the potential of returning 32x over 5 quarters. The cumulative return would be 26x. With a 90% drawdown you would reverse that.

This is how things were reversed in the financial crisis. That’s the simple truth. There are people here at Bullish Cross who went from $10 million down to $100k and then back up to $30 million. How did that happen? Same basic strategy. You have to keep in mind that this near-term irrationality isn’t going to last forever. It will pass. Yet, current option values do not assume so. That’s why you were able to go back and buy the Apple $90 call-options during the lows of the crisis for $10.00. They went up 25 x by expiration.

12:52 PM — the third part of the plan is to trade in and out of the $900 – $1000 spread depending on the circumstances at the time. Notice the fact that Apple trade up and down between a low P/E and high P/E. Don’t chase parabolic moves. This is the result when doing so Just get the fuck out when Apple hits a 15.5 P/E and then wait until Apple gets down near 13 to get back in.

12:53 PM –But again, please realize that 47 trading sessions is a very long time. Just to give you some perspective, this entire sell-off hasn’t even lasted 47 sessions yet. It’s barely just hit 30. This sell-off feels like an eternity right? Well that’s how much time there is between now and January. Apple has shown that it can put up 15-20% moves up in just 20-days. That means in just half the time between now and January, we could be at $650 a share. Very easily. The sentiment could change very slowly until finally we get positive newsflow. Then people start coming back to their senses and the stock rebounds. Even a rebound to $600 would go a long ways because the positive momentum and sentiment of the rebound will cause the spreads to materially increase in value. They could quadruple from here. The point I’m making is that you need to have a concrete plan. And I think we will deliver a good one to be executed over the course of the next year.

12:57 PM — Now here’s my final point. You’re going to probably see 10,000 comments on “what’s if’s,” alternatives and doubts. It is what it is. This is what we’re going to do. I’m not going to defend it or spend my time answering individual questions. I’ve already thought of the risks and benefits. I can’t spend my time defending it. I’m just going to execute it. If you want to be part of it, then be a part of it. If you don’t, then don’t. I just don’t have enough time to sit there and respond to criticisms.

1:20 PM — Apple is currently the most undervalued it has ever been. Consider this. Apple’s earnings will likely rise to around $74.00 when it reports fiscal Q1 2014. They say market’s are forward looking right? This is actual proof that this is not the case. The market trades based on it’s own perspective of reality or ignores reality as it understands it. It is not forward looking. Not one bit. If it were forward looking, there is no chance in hell that Apple would be trading at $540 a share. No chance at all.

Consider this. Apple’s cash will probably rise to roughly $200 to $210 a share by January 2014. That means Apple is essentially trading at a $341 premium. And ernings rising to around $74.00 in Jan 2014, would put Apple at a 4.60 P/E ratio when you back out cash. That means if Apple grew at zero percent the stock would likely be sitting at a 0 P/E ratio. That’s forward looking?

The market knows Apple is at the peak of its expense cycle. That means Q1 2014 is going to be massively above fiscal Q1 2013 earnings. You’re not just going to have revenue growth, you will have Apple hitting the peak of the cycle on gross margin. It’s gross margins will likely come in near 47-48% in Q1 2014 while it comes in at 40% at most in Q1 2013. That means Apple will not only produce more revenue, but more of that revenue will fall to the bottom line.

Even a fucking moron would understand this. But apparently Wall Street doesn’t? I doubt it. Hence, this is not a forward looking reflection of Apple’s valuation. A stock trading at a 4 P/E is total bullshit. You have to assume from now on that either the entire stock market is run by total morons or it is run by people that don’t price things on a forward looking basis. Because the market is foregoing buying the stock at a 4 P/E ratio because they’re worried about earnings in two months? But let’s just ignore what will transpire over the next 9-12 months?

2:40 PM — Apple just hit a -30M Chaikin Oscillator on the daily chart. Pretty insane how much they’re selling Apple. It’s being sold as if the stock is going bankrupt. It’s trading at 7x next year’s earnings now. 4x when you back out cash:

2:51 PM – Well the hourly bars even though remain to be red every hour are starting to close off their lows now. You’re seeing buying come in on each hour which is closing them off the lows. That’s the first sign that someone has decided that Apple trading at a 4.4x x-cash is cheap.

3:25 PM — Apple is down $90.00 in 12 days.

4:00 AM – Well Apple has completed a 100% retracement of the gains. God I hate the fact that I work with fucking morons. Really. As soon as 2014 is over, I’m so through with the bullshit stock market. I need to work with people who have half a fucking brain. I cannot stand listening to this stupidity on CNBC right now or the vast bullshit all over the press. My biggest flaw is my inability to realize that I work with fucking tards.

Like seriously. How can someone state that Apple is going to $430? Only a dipshit with no knowledge of Apple’s financials or valuation can make such a statement. But notice how he’s in the position to make that statement. Which means my colleagues are completely out of their minds. I need to work in a different industry altogether. Here’s Apple trading at a 30 Chaikin Oscillator on the daily and a 25 RSI on the 14-day. It’s trading at 7x next year’s earning and 12x last year’s earnings. One of the lowest valuations of large cap tech. For what, because people don’t realize supplied constrained is a relative term.

And you think the U.S. will get over the flical cliff? No way in hell. Why would anyone thinking that? Congress fails epically to pass a bailout to save American Capitalism just to save their own skin in 2008. They screw around with the debt ceiling. And now people think congress gives a flying shit about America? They care more about their jobs than they do to help the country. Everyone remember this:

Or how about the debt ceiling debate. For those who are wondering, don’t expect anything out of congress. John Boehner is no better than Nancy Pelosi. They are both politically motivated. Here’s how things are going with the fiscal cliff:

Just like the S&P downgrade of U.S. debt as a result of the self-motivated congress. As far as I’m concerned, anyone who voted against the $700 billion TARP plan on September 29, 2008 should have been immediately fired and not allowed to be part of politics ever again:

Anyone selling Apple down here is a total asshole. And I’m embarrassed that I’m colleagues with them. So that’s why I’m pretty much almost certainly changing professions by the end of 2014. Maybe a little after.

4:20 PM — Here’s another thing. There’s no point in doing any analysis at all or investing long-term. Trading is the only thing that consistently works. Here’s why. You do the analysis, your homework and in the end it’s all worthless. Notice how most people in the market operate under their “ideas” of reality. Instead of working off of a framework of reality, they are working on their own perspective on what reality is. For example, right now there is all of this theory that this is tax selling. Well based on what? Did people poll 10,000 fund managers and ask them if they’re selling stocks as a result of taxes? On what basis are you making that assumption? Because in the end, fund managers aren’t even motivated by that. They make no more or less money if they sell to save for taxes or not. Because in the end, their performance is based on net asset value. Not net of taxes. Pre-taxes. But even if they were so motivated, if that were the case, the entire stock market would be taking a huge dump. On top of that, people wouldn’t be selling Apple down here at a 4 P/E ratio.

But this sort of gives you an idea of how things work. People just trade base don any b.s. theory they can conjure in their minds as seeming plausible. Or look at the vast number of misconceptions being thrown around and the price-tragetes you’re seeing with Apple and the basis of those targets. Apple is going back down to $450 a share because no one likes their products anymore. WEll thanks genius. Do you even realize what it would mean from a valuation perspective if Apple traded down to $450 a share? Nope.

Anyways. The point I’m making here is that trading is now abundantly clear to me to be the far superior approach to the markets. Look at our SPY record. That’s pretty easy money. I’m so close to being done with Apple. Trading the SPY works in every market. Apple just randomly crashes and then people all go back in hindsight and try to claim why it was predictable. Oh yeah? Predictable.

Well let’s think about that shall we? Here’s what we knew about Apple at the end of September and you tell me what is predictable. Here’s what was obvious and known at the end of September:

(1) On Friday, September 19, 2012 Apple was going the September Options Expiration. The last 4 or so monthly expirations preceded a big gap-up the following Monday.
(2) Apple launched an incredible device in the iPhone 5. You know it and I know it. Go back and look at initial reviews of the iPhone 5 pre-mapplegate.
(3) October is the most prolific month of the year for Apple
(4) Apple spent 5-days consolidating above $700 a share
(5) Apple was entering what was the most bullish period of the quarter for the stock. The last four to five weeks of the quarter are hyper-bullish.
(6) Apple has NEVER closed below where it was at week 5 in the quarter at options expiration. NEVER. Apple was at $675 at week 5.
(7) Apple’s earnings were just 5-weeks away where expectations were already very low and where many expected some big guidance.
(8) There were rumors of Apple launching an iPhone Mini.

Alright. Now let’s think about this a little further. Apple has never corrected before its earnings. Ever. In fact, only once did Apple see a brief pull-back ahead of earnings and that was the 10-days ahead of Apple’s fiscal Q2 2012. But that was not a very big pull-back and only after Apple was much higher between where it was at week 8 and week 10.

Ok. So what was the thought process at the time? Simple. The expectation was that Apple may gap-up as a result of being held back at September expiration. While we did expect some sort of a correction after Apple reported earnings, that correction could have happened from $730 or $750 a share. It could have been from much higher levels. What’s more, if Apple did gap-up on its results we may have then lightened up. Especially at $730 or $740 a share.

So you can see that at the time, there was very few signs of any weakness in Apple. What about the first $20-$30 pull-back? What about it? During the rally from $570 up to $700, we’ve seen multiple $20-$30 pull-backs. Hell, we once had a $40.00 pull-back during the rally.

What else did we have? We had QE3. And what was our experience with QE1 and QE2? Both lead to huge parabolic rallies in Apple an the market. So why did we feel confident in Apple up there? Simple, the evidence was pretty strong. Why were we so confident in the $655 – $705 spread? Simple, Apple was already sitting at $700 a share in September. Do you know what that has meant in the past for Apple? $800 by January. That’s what hit has meant. That’s what we have seen in the past. The fall is very prolific for Apple.

What about the pull-back? What about it? Why were we confident at even $600 that Apple would rally back. Because it has always done that and the fundamentals were plain and clear. A pull-back from $70.00 to a $60.00 a share for a stock is no big deal. That stock could be right back to $70 within a month no problem. We see that happen all the time.

But this sell-off down to $530? What the hell? This is totally unprecedented in my mind. Why? Because there is a very obvious divergence between the way Apple is trading and Apple’s fundamentals + valuation. That’s why I think maybe this is redemptions. Maybe this is a broker failing and requiring to sell shares. This doesn’t make sense. The selling is vertical. It’s pretty much straight down.

There has to be something more to this than mere selling as a result of fears. This doesn’t make sense. Because it would be two sided. There are going to be a lot of other people who think Apple is undervalued. So that’s why this amount of selling seems to be a little forced. Now here is a simple issue that has been on my mind for the past week. When you look at the April-May sell-off, it is a lot like this sell-off. Think about it. Without Apple’s gap-up on earnings, the hourly selling pressure is exactly the same. Like what we saw during the trading sessions of those periods is the same here. The only difference is there was a 50-point gap-up. Without that gap-up, the sell-off is the same. That could be an encouraging sign. But let’s just wait and see:

4:50 PM — Apple is at a 20 RSI on the 60-minute chart. That would suggest that we should see a $23-point rally. Yay. A whole $23.00. We will have reversed what happened today. That’s the short-term RSI indicator:

Apple is at a 24.33 RSI on the daily chart. Will this time be different? Apple could be setting up for a fatty head & shoulders top. This would be a $170 head & shoulders top with a downside target of $360.00 a share. In a market full of tards, who knows?

Apple closed at a -30M Chaikin Oscillator. That’s pretty extreme as well. But I don’t know how all of this helps us if Apple doesn’t rebound up to $600 a share in like 3-weeks. It need to get back up to $600 within the next 3-weeks which will give it 3-5 weeks to rebound up to $650 thereby restoring a lot of value in the $655 – $705 spread. Things are not looking good.

Finally, Apple closed at a 16.09 RSI on the 7-day and at almost $12.00 below the lower b-band. This almost guarantees that Apple opens and probably closes below the lower b-band tomorrow which means Apple bottomed. I’m very sure that either Apple is in an all-out irrational crash to $430 a share to fill the $420 – $450 gap or it is still semi-ratioal technically speaking and wants to test the $530 level thereby producing a 100% retracement.

The good news is that things will have finally bottomed. The bad news is that Apple has 45 sessions or thereabouts to get back up to $700 a share. That’s $170 or 32%. That would be $3.78 a day on average for 45-sessions. Really, I would just be happy with $600 within three-weeks. That would give us reasonable exit points and it would keep us in the game to bitchslap 2014. Then I can quit and play with my kids.

5:07 PM — The SPY is almost oversold on the 14-day. As many of you know, that’s typically a big indicator of a bottom. But the biggest indicator by far is the $NYSE McClellan Oscillator getting oversold. The $NYSE McClellan Oscillator is nearing that key bottom level. It’s at -48.7M right now and anything under -70M puts it in a key place.

The NASDAQ-100 has hit under a 30 RSI on the daily. That’s typically a huge indicator for a bottom for the QQQ. So we have all of these bottoming indicators. Not it’s going to come down to how Apple and the NASDAQ-100 recovers. Bottoming at $610 is a lot different than bottoming at $530. That’s a huge difference. And the morons of the market have put us in a delicate position. Really, what we’re going to want to see is to sell around a $620-$630 price level and then consider how we will move forward from there. I do think we will see another major sell-off like this between January and March which will form a head & shoulders top making it the biggest head-fake in investing history. The $900 – $1000 spread will be $1.00 and go to $30 within 4-months from that point:

5:22 PM — I think all things considered, Apple is probably going to rally up to $640 by January expiration. If we are lucky we may get up to that $650 level on a test before the expiration. Here’s why. This outlook I laid out above is going to unfold. Today’s sell-off is the most likely day for capitulation by far. There’s no question about it now. In fact, I don’t think there was a better trading session in the history of Apple sessions that is a better set-up for capitulation. Finally! Here’s why.

(1) Apple is now trading at a 12.11 P/E ratio on lows of the day.
(2) Apple has closed down nearly $12.00 below the lower b-band.
(3) I just cussed everyone out. That’s rare.
(4) Apple is at a 16 RSI on the 7-day
(5) Apple is at a 24 RSI on the 14-day
(6) Apple is at a -30M Chaikin Oscillator (missing until today finally!!!!)
(7) The Market is nearing a low. We’re at oversold conditions on the SPY and QQQ. Not a final low in the market, but getting close to that.

I think Apple will test $528 tomorrow, hammer and close with a black bar with a long candlestick wick. That close will be below the lower b-band. Then hopefully that will spark a rally. What should come next is an up $50.00 day. Apple is due for an up $50. Just like when the Dow loses 400 and 500 points, eventually there is this 500 point up day. Well that’s where we are with Apple.

I think the Apple $600 – $650 spread holders are safe. Remember, the model portfolio is designed to be able to accept a loss on the $655 – $705 so long as the $600 – $650 closes green. We would actually end the year up huge if that happens. I know not everyone is holding those positions, but all we can really do is design a plan based on that.

My hope right now is that Apple’s reflex rally will be huge and quickly. Because if we get an immediate relief rally up to say $620 — something that is very possible over like a 20-day period — then we could sell the $655 – $705 for a very reasonable price tag. We will then consider selling the $600 – $650′s as well.

But what we will do from there is play both April spreads and January 2014 spreads. Hopefully, we will still be able to step into the $900 – $1000 spread on a big enough pull-back at $5.00 a contract. That would be a great position overall because just the rebound itself would take that spread up to $30 or $40. But anyways. I do think today was capitulation. This is the best set-up we’ve ever seen out of Apple. Far greater than any other session this week and infinitely better than last Friday. Why? Because we were missing the $12 close under the lower b-band AND the -30M Chaikin Ocillator. We’re also sitting at a 24 RSI on the daily for god sake. Remember, when that happens on the hourly, you tend to see a 10-15 back-to-back green bars. Well the same works here except on a daily time-frame. So we could end-up seeing something like 10-15 days of green straight. A +50 day would go a long way for us. Maybe Apple’s management won’t be total pricks and come out and say something. Anything. Even if they say, “we proud to say that we are finally in supply demand parity” or better yet, offer mid-quarter upping of guidance. That would be huge. If Apple increased guidance, that would cause a parabolic rally. Apple has never done that. But if they did, it would be huge. Now back from fantasy lang, I do think i’ve laid out why we’ve capitulated and why Apple will probably rally to $640 by January expiration.

1,286 Responses to Bullish Cross Live

  1. Thanks to jrob and others for bringing this up. I think this weekly chart from 2006 shows that the drop was worse back then and more importantly, the severity of the rebound. If you forget the decimals, it dropped from 725 to below 500 and then, IN JUST ONE WEEK, rode back to over 600. This rebound is what AZ has been asking us to wait for:
    As jrob said, there’s nothing like looking at the chart yourself!

    • There is a big diff between a mid cap stock moving from 50 to 70 than the largest cap out there moving from 50-70 in 6 weeks. Our best shot is to get to 640-650 by Jan expiration IF it bottoms in the 520-530 area…if it drops much below that, God save us…I am praying now…if I dodge this one time, I will never buy into this Pollyanna outlook regardless of how good the products are…all the independent and analyst community have gone way too far with growth projections and things have changed fundamentally which the market is adjusting to…for eg, I don’t see everyone upgrading from iPhone 4 to 5 around me like I did with 3 to 4 and that will only get worse next year

      • I’d say not so. The irrationality is no less for a mega-cap stock (apparently) than it is for a small-cap. Manipulation is much harder, but there’s no reason that huge moves in price are less likely. Price movement is a function of the magnitude in difference between supply and demand for the stock. This can be done with low volume, or high volume, but it doesn’t require $20 B of orders to move the stock price $30, if there just aren’t that many asks.

  2. Kass just tweeted that he bought apple.

    • Can you access his “pro” site to see his reasons?
      The guy signaled the topping at 700. Let’s see if his buy call could revers the damage. It is easier to destroy than build.

  3. The dollar volume for Apple yesterday was 20 billion dollars, the next 19 stocks were less than 16 billion. Sounds unusual to me.

  4. Foxconn looking to set up plants in U.S., Digitimes reports

  5. Down 2.5 in pre market – let’s hope it bottoms today….we badly need a reversal…pls pls stop this train wreck

    • Looks like going down to 520s in the first hour itself…let’s see if it stops there…man, what a fall…this is not correction…a crash that doesn’t look like slowing down

  6. Kass tweeted that going long AAPL this am 11/9.
    article not up yet re full reasoning but looking forward to his reasons and price target!!!!

    • I don’t see it on stocktwits – does he tweet on twitter or stocktwits? He certainly won the bear debate hands down….

  7. SPY is down -.94

  8. just got email from him at 8:10…he confirmed article is with editors and will be up shortly on his site!!!!
    looking forward to remarks!!!

  9. Benjamin Blom

    Benjamin ……

    ANDY .and friends………remember the master ……..we need to stay COOL ,,,yes we can

    klick in the link

  10. DougKass
    Up shortly on RealMoneyPro – Why I am Buying AAPL. $AAPL
    Nov. 9 at 5:20 AM via Twitter

  11. Johny Apple Seed

    I want a 15 Inch Ipad Maxi for around the house! I love the navigation of the touch screen.

  12. Shaun Abraham (renjixb)

    At what price does AZ say this is broken and we need to transition? We wait for a bounce at 680, 650, 600, 584, 550, 540,

    now….520, 500?

    Hopefully this weekend will detail a plan saying sell if AAPL breaks 520 immediately and transition to Jan 2014 900-1000 spread or Jan 2015 950-1000 spreads

    Yes someone is going to be very rich off the eventual rebound with long dated safe spreads….but it wont be us unless we transition to something thats far away and far OTM from here to make up some losses

    AZ believes in his TTM and $1000 for 2014? Seeing how TTM has been wrong the past 2 qtrs…have abuot we extend that out to 2015.

    Does a 2015 900-1000 spread return or 950-1000 spread return look bad at all to anyone here vs being wiped out? Options are hit hard if they are OTM with a month less left….we are close at that point

    • aapl is fighting the trend pre market…finally…deep red futtures and green aapl. maybe aapl is leading again and has bottomed? At some point, you have to live with yourself. If you feel comfortable rolling out, then roll out,. but i wouldnt roll to jan 15….if u want to do 14 , i’d do something much safer than 900-1000. It could certainly close ITM but it will take a long time from 530 to recover. You can recover quicker by holding some january-july 2013.

    • Jan 14. Earning would probably adds a lot to the TTM, but before that the TTM most likely to be around 55-58 which I think is too low to give a floor around 900.

    • BankingonAppl

      The jan14 900-1000 will be a buy and trade strategy. When Apple rises up into the 15.5x PE sell the spread for a good gain and wait for Apple to go back down to ????. 3 weeks ago I would have said 13.25PE, now I haven’t a fucking clue.
      To be clear this is a buy and sell strategy. There is no intent to just buy and hold.
      I will do a portion of my funds this way.
      My buy and hold for Jan14 is the 680-700. I bought it this week when I bailed on my Jan13 600-650 on Tuesday. over fucking $50 ago.

    • I don’t get why you need me to do anything. You can do it all yourself. I’m doing what I’m going to do. Transition if you want.

      • Andy – I have followed you to the letter man and will stick it out. Hope you would be able to bail us loyal subs out…been here since Jane 11 and can’t watch everything go to 0 when the stock rose from 310 to 500+. At this point, I am just trying to figure out how I can get my original capital back forget the portfolio highs at 700 – that’s dreams. I just want my hard earned pricincipal recovered. Look forward to a few more years of BC life here. Also, pls consider the tax situation for the gains we have as head into next month. You were planning on holding till Jan to avoid that earlier and now we have realized gains and much much more unrealized losses to watch out for…fingers crossed for a bottom down here

    • Johny Apple Seed

      I do not feel you are safe betting on anything greater than the consensus analyst next year prices, with some margin added for safety. Andy may be right, and Apple will earn $65 and go to$1000, but the stock price is going to be dictated by what the majority on Wall Street think. If you take the mid PE range of 13.5 and multiply the earnings growth of 20% you get a $715 price. I know apple is exceptional, but most of the large companies cannot grow even 20% perpetually. Cash on the balance sheet, and other factors just increase your margin of safety, which are offset by fierce competition etc.

      If you want to go for a grand slam, do so while realizing the risks, but you are sometimes much better off bunting.

      If we used the same logic that I using right here 13.5 X 44.15 = $596, we would only be hoping to get to$600 by January. That is why I am seriously considering buying the $530 – $550 for Feb 13 for 9.80.

      This is opposite of how Andy thinks, but 100% in 3 months is enough of a gain for me. There is always the risk reward trade off, but IMO you have to have at least an 80% to 20% certainty. A $900+ stock price is at best a 50-50 bet. Going all in, can be a big mistake, especially with long odds. I am always first trying to minimize the risk, then 2nd maximizing the reward.

      This is not a decent on Andy – I have no question he is a smart guy, but I think all of us are smart. And I just wanted to voice an alternate perspective. I hope for all of us Andy is right and I am wrong. You have to be careful when playing with firecrackers, you can lose your fingers.

  13. I’m seeing more IP5s catching up with demand, Apple to begin selling IP5 in China articles. Perhaps Apple IR has been seeding the news agencies with some tidbits to fight the red tape.

    China Unicom expects to start selling iPhone 5 by year-end

  14. I’d almost say its better for AAPL to b red at open than green. It’s often pushed up to b shorted.

  15. Kass is now long apple.

  16. I’m not on RealMoney Pro. Did Kass say anything valuable?

    • Yes, talked about how cheap it is on several metrics. Said all of his concerns and then some have been discounted.

  17. What happened to the stock?

  18. Stock twits says
    Munster says “iPhone5 supplies are improving” – I’m sure that will be spun as demand is dropping… $AAPL
    Nov. 9 at 6:03 AM • Reply • Like • Flag • More

  19. $UBS insights from visit to $AAPL – maintaning buy and $780 price target pic.twitter.com/65LrJ58s

  20. aapl looking good premarket….although it’s been grren pre market last few days and tanked, this one has a difft feel to it. i’m starting to see some very positive articles. even kass is now buying. i may start dipping my toes into july and/or 2014

    • Agreed. Up +$5. I’m going shopping today. I think today is going to be one of the best shopping days left of this year.

      • Even though … once again I was too early … I wish I hadn’t bought on Tuesday (I bought some December $620/$640 spreads)

        • wow december.. u got balls!!! i’ve gotten burned with short term….im going longer here. hope u kick some ass

          • Yea, bug it was only a small %. The way I figured it, December OE is the 22nd and if there is going to be a year end rally we can get back to there easy — but remember I bought it on Tuesday when AAPL was over $580 — an entire two days ago.

          • PS: I expect that after the weeklies are done today, Apple will have a good week next week.

      • Shaun Abraham (renjixb)

        I was close to buying everyone mini iPads for Christmas and possibly my first aapl non iPhone buy….still want to but can’t now. We end up at 650 ill make it up to everyone

  21. i am so disoriented.

    Monitor malfunction?

    Green AAPL?

  22. Dave Gordon (davegordon14)

    Would love to see an outside reversal day. Please open deep in the red today.

  23. cramer still trying to talk down aapl.

  24. I bought a small amount of puts expiring next week, 530. Let the magic begin.

  25. Apple reversed early pre-market red – gap up ? – I think it might fade again .. .. it seems down trend is not done yet …

    • disagree. i think we close green finally. we shall see. hope i’m right!!

      I can’t believe I’m asking this but someone please post the Kass article when they get it.

  26. Andy: say whatever you want, but Kass nailed this bear raid. I think you should think about partnering with him rather than attacking him…his only mistake is calling the all time top which may or may not be right but then again, he would be doing that just to get the bear raid started every time…as long he makes shit load of money, who cares about credibility…he is winning both ways while we are bagholders here…if u connect with some of these influential market participants in a positive way, we can all win…just saying…no point fighting the suckas..

    • no use in pointing fingers bull. Kass was right this time. Katy Huberty was right about July miss. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. How many times has Andy been right? Andy’s been getting a lot of shit ( rightfully so) but let’s not forget he’s human and is wrong sometimes too. Not brown nosing here , just want you to keep perspective. We can continue to bitch and whine, or we can get back on the horse and start the recovery. Your choice…i’ve bitched enough…ready to claw my way back now

      • +1 not a criticism of Andy…I am his biggest fan here and still regard him as the best out there, that’s why I am here since June 2011…but we need to be open to alternate theories and views…the way Andy went out to Kass publicly was sort of a desperate move IMO…

        • Maybe it didn’t work, but it was Andy trying to defend the stock and defend our positions. It didn’t work. I say fuck Kass. He was right but fuck it…and Nagrani…dude…ur earnings estimates last qtr were the worst and u are quitting? dont go out like that!

      • “How many times has Andy been right? Andy’s been getting a lot of shit ( rightfully so) but let’s not forget he’s human and is wrong sometimes too.”

        +1000 I wouldn’t be here otherwise. Everyone knows how shitty this week was.

        But here is some more good news: based on reading the comment section yesterday I’d say the BC capitulation harmonic oscillator broke through its third standard deviation, indicating a definite bottom unless AAPL continues to go lower in which case the bottom will come slightly later.

    • agreed – Zaky – you got owned by Kass on this. Shit, you were talking yesterday about leaving the game and changing industries. Don’t go out like that..

      • +1 we need to be fucking nimble and not get into these buy, hold and pray scenarios with all in option portfolios…bears will nail us all the time…and I guess Kass has plants here in this sub community as well and I bet hedge funds track every move of Andy…those days of easy option money are gone where Apple had strong secular growth every quarter and stock would have to rise to justify low valuations…fundamentals are still strong but no more 50-100% growth every year, so we better be nimble..

    • Sorry but Kass made a short-term argument about Apple. His arguments were all long-term in nature. So he’s automatically right anytime the stock pulls-back and not wrong when the stock rallies? His argument were not short-term in nature. He didn’t say “Apple peaked right here right now and it’s going to collapse.”

  27. I sure fucking hope yesterday was a bear trap that i referenced.

    Sure seems that way with Kass going long, supply issues looking to be resolved and press releases about both Unicom and Telecom getting iphone 5..

    Again Cramer saying aapl has nothing in the pipeline this past Wednesday was like the pinnacle of this whole charade

  28. Dave Gordon (davegordon14)

    High put OI at $550. That’s target 1.

    Also high put OI for SPY is $138… just an FYI.

  29. BTW: a real bottoming indicator — StockTweet TA’s are tweeting up a storm saying that AAPL has almost bottomed and only needs one more leg down to touch $530 — I think this ship has sailed

  30. Short squeeeeeze is coming. Over 10 million shares traded in less than one hour. APPL over 545.

  31. New Post.