Bullish Cross Live

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THE LIVE BLOG 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM

11:45 PM — right now the futures are red on the Obama victory, but anything could happen overnight. If we open lower and Apple tests the $573 level, then it will be important for Apple to hold that level. Especially if it gets down to a 30 RSI again in the process. It has spent quite some time now under the 200-day moving average. We saw that happen back in June 2011. It’s not a big deal to spend even a week under the 200-day. But it’s going to need to recapture that soon.

10:07 AM — I know you are probably sick of hearing this, but you should be aware of the facts. Today is another day — I would say the second most likely after Friday — to be capitulation day. Here’s why. On Friday, we had the most optimal conditions. Today we have the second most optimal conditions. Which are still pretty damn good. What we have today is Apple testing — and apparently holding — the $568 support level. Pre-dividend that support level was near $570. It’s now more like $667.50. This support level is quite possibly the most important support level for Apple. It couldn’t be any bigger. So far Apple seems to be holding that just fine.

Secondly, Apple is now trading at under a 13 P/E ratio which actually makes today more compelling than last Friday in some senses. The only difference between today’s set-up and Friday’s set-up is the fact that Apple was a little more oversold on the RSI and Apple closed $5.00 below the lower b-band. It doesn’t appear we will see either happen today. Well down here Apple is at a 30-RSI. So maybe. We will see. Take a look at the chart below. If you remember, after Apple report Q3 2012 earnings in July, it gapped down, tested and held the $570 level for about a week. It then skyrocketed higher. The fact Apple has returned to this level makes it a 100% retracement of the gains from July to September. Here is that key support level:

I know you must feel like puking everywhere. I get it. But the more Apple drops, the more powerful the recovery will be. I’m now fairly sure that Apple will form the same pattern it formed last year. And that will be to form a double-top at $700 and it will then probably slide back down toward $600 a share. Don’t under estimate the recoveries off the lows. They are usually HUGE. I know it’s easy to do so when Apple is down here in the gutter, but the stock can easily without very little problem rebound back up to $630 to $640 in as little as 5-6 trading days. In fact, it has done so before. Go back to last May for instance. Apple went from $527 on Friday to $580 on Tuesday the following week. That was $53.00 over two session. In fact, it was $53.00 over 8 hourly bars. And this isn’t an isolated event. Right now Apple’s P/E ratio has fallen to a low of 12.80. That make today one of the lowest valuation days in Apple’s history ever.

Now here is one thing to keep in mind down here. These levels that we’re seeing at Friday and today, are not normal extremes. These are peak levels. That’s why you got the bounce you had on Monday. But take a look now. With the dividend figured into the equation, Apple was sitting at a low of roughly $572.20 on Friday. Right now, it has gotten to about $6.00 below that. That’s all Apple was able to go before coming right back to those extremes. So what that tells you is that it’s going to become harder and harder for Apple to fall to new lows because it has been so beaten down that it’s just technically too extreme to see the same level of selling. WIthout a proper rebound of $50-$70, it will continue to do so. Just in the time it took to write this post, Apple’s RSI has fallen to 29.84 already. That’s the second lowest print since the financial crisis;

11:23 AM — FINALLY! Some potentially good news for once. Right now, Apple’s 60M Chaikin Oscillator is sitting at -3.54 on the hourly. If that could drop to -4M by the close of the hour of 12 PM, that indicator has been perfect in this correction. It hasn’t failed. It has preceded a +20 move in the stock on every occasion in this sell-off. What’s more, the rebound has generally started within 1-hour of reaching that point. Sometimes it’s a delayed response by a few trading hours. But oftentimes it starts working within 1-hour. Now why is this important. Because it could signal a bullish hammer today. It’s a possibility. But we need it to get down to -4M first by the close of the our. It’s at -3.8 right now. If Apple hammers from here to close say in the green or only down -$2 or -$3, then I think we could spark something much larger.

Heres’ why. If people see a hammer out of Apple after this much selling — the stock is now down 20% — it could lead to a people stepping in to buy. This is the one indicator that has worked very well in this correction. So it could be the start of something. A +20 rebound could lead to further buying. The stock could end up being at $600 by Friday which would lead to a much larger rebound next week. I would watch how this plays out.

12:20 PM — Consider this analysis. Apple guiding its revenues to $52 billion on the quarter. This suggests that Apple will sell around 55 million iPhones. Now suppose Apple notices that the demand is closer to 80 million iPhones. It asks its suppliers to produce 80 million. The suppliers say “it can’t be done.” Does this make Apple supply constrained? Notice that 55 million iPhone sold would be massive. It would surpass all expectations. Is Apple supply constrained?

Suppose said manufacturer says “we will ship far fewer iPhones than Apple has requested.” Suppose that means they will deliver 60 million which is 20 million less — or “far fewer” — than what Apple requests — which might have been 80 million.

So you can see how this can all be hyper manipulated. The terms “supplied constrained” is a relative term. Suppose iPhone demand was 200 million and Apple was only able to sell 55 million this quarter. Is Apple extremely supply constrained? Yes. Is it a bad quarter. Hell no!

The problem is that Apple refuses to make this pretty clear. They should say the demand is much higher than we expected, but we have produced and are on track to produce iPhones in an amount that will meet most expectations. On the one hand, our numbers will be huge. On the other hand, demand is off the charts.

Alas they will never do this. But the statement “Apple is supply constrained’ is 100% meaningless without a reference point. Thus, it can be manipulated and it has been manipulated. Now what reference point do we have? Apple’s guidance. And what does Apple’s guidance suggest? 55 million iPhones. But Wall Street and or the press either too stupid or too dishonest to want to make this clear.

12:35 AM — one thing lost in the blood drama today is that this session marks the lowest P/E ratio in Apple’s history. We have never seen a session where Apple traded at a lower valuation. 12.59 was the low print of the day:

1:01 PM — Apple may have formed an intra-day double-bottom. We will have to see whether we can catch a bid here. A w-recovery is at $565.50. A breakout above that could take APple well into the $570′s. So that’s where we stand right now. Let’s see if we can get any traction here:

1:17 PM — I do want to say something very important today. This sell-off until this past Friday was fine. It was within the realm of normalcy. It’s what we have typically seen out of Apple in the past and the stock normally recovers from that. Mostly because it finds buyers at these very low valuations and very oversold conditions. Now let’s talk about what has transpired since Monday. Because what I’ve seen from Monday to today is extremely abnormal.

That being said, let’s think about that for a moment. We know the May sell-off was 18%. This one is now over 20%. The lowest P/E ratio we saw back in May was 12.7 and today it got down to 12.56. So this correction is worse than what we saw in May. But if you go back to 2007, it’s not unreasonable. We saw three 20% corrections in 2007 which is a year that everyone remembers as being this great year for Apple. Granted the volatility was a little higher than, but we did see 20% correction with regularity pre-crisis era.

But even setting that aside for a moment, here’s the key question we’re all confronted with. Apple has bottomed at a 30 RSI in the past. That has been enough. In May, we spent two days trading at a 30 RSI. Today, we spent Friday and Wednesday at a 30 RSI. We also had to see a sideways bounce or whatever on Monday/Tuesday.

But here’s the issue right now. Even if Apple does see a lower RSI here, at what point does that invalidate past history for Apple? After all, this could just be a worse correction that extended only slightly beyond what we saw in the past. Suppose Apple does bottom today with a 28 RSI. In hindsight, that would appear perfectly within the realm of normalcy. We would look back at this and say this one went the furtherest but still rather close to previous corrections.

The concern I have is at what point does it go too far? And I think the answer to that is beyond a week. This stock cannot do this anymore. If it’s still sitting down here a week from now, that should be cause for concern. We will talk about that then. I’m still confident that the stock is due for a huge oversold bounce given that it has been vertical from $705 to $550 which is extremely excessive even for a shit stock. So just technically speaking — forget about Apple’s fundamentals — the stock is due to rebound at least $60 minimum. Probably $70 or more. The correction has been almost $150 straight down.

1:50 PM — Apple is now forming a symmetrical triangle which suggests a downside breakout to $650 a share. It could get worse over the next two hours of trading. Apple at a 28.54 RSI. It doesn’t seem to matter. It will be interesting to see how low that RSI closes at today. We never did get that -4M Chaikin Oscillator earlier by the way. The market pushed Apple up for 20 minutes to stop that from happening. Maybe we get that on the breakdown from here. Doom and gloom. It’s all going to hell. Duck and cover.

We also have bear flags on the SPY and QQQ indicating fresh lows by either the close or by tomorrow morning. There is a chance that Apple could break out of that symmetrical triangle to the upside. But don’t hold your breath.

2:45 PM — Everyone needs to take a walk and relax today. Look, Apple still hasn’t had its rebound yet. I can tell you for sure there will be significantly higher prices than today. Those who are selling in this fear-induced delirium will regret it in a huge way. You need to wait for the rebound to sell if you want out that badly. Don’t sell when Apple is at a 27 RSI. That’s a big mistake. I really don’t know what else to tell you. There are still 10-11 weeks left in the quarter. This correction has been going on for 7-weeks. There is far more time left between now and quarter end than this entire correction. You need to wait to see how Apple responds to be so oversold. This is new territory for Apple. It could end-up being the most obvious bottom of all time. So please close your computers and take a walk for the day. Go to lunch early and stay away from the market.

4:00 PM — Ok. We finally have Apple closing under a 20M Chaikin Oscillator on the daily chart for the first time. Apple has also closed under its lower b-band again and at a 28 RSI. It has also closed at an all-time low P/E ratio. Don’t sell into this madness. You will regret it. Big time. What’s more, you will have an opportunity to sell the $655 – $705 near $15 to $16 which is 5x from here. I added a very small position to that today at $3.70. So that gives you a sense of how I feel about it. At a minimum, when you look at the depth of the chart, we should see a rebound of $70-$80. That’s even if Apple’s downtrend were to continue and the stock were to be over. You will be able to sell your $655 – $705 spreads at 5x today’s value. So just please be patient. Once we do so, we will then use that capital to buy some 2014 spreads that are going to be giving us 4-5x. If you are patient and play this right, you can come away with no damage to these spreads and simply roll to July or January. Just again. I beg you to be patient. I don’t want people to just lose their unnecessarily. Just keep in mind that we have 10-weeks ahead of us. A lot can happen in 10-weeks. As much as you doubt it, Apple can very easily be at $700 in 10-weeks. That’s how much can change. I don’t think it is as likely anymore with Apple so far under $600. But I don’t think it’s off the table either and I definitely feel confident that we will be able to exit our $655 – $705 spreads at near even and I do feel that we could end up getting full value for our $600 – $650 spread. Again, remember that I absolutely begged you to use reason here. Don’t lose yourself in fear. Use your mind. Apple is down $150 in 7-weeks. And it did it straight. We didn’t even see a small rally. When you do, it will be a 70-80 point move straight up. It will be vertical. It will be one of those rebounds where it’s 18 hourly bars, 2 in the red and 15 in the green for +$75. Be patient. If Apple were to continue in a downtrend, this is precisely how it would happen. You would get a huge rebound first:

So even in a scenario where Apple heads lower, you will be able to sell at much higher levels than here. Be patient. Be patient. Be patient. You know, I didn’t even log into my personal account for three weeks. Do you know why? Because it helps use reason instead of fear to do my analysis. If I sit there and click refresh on my account value every 5 minutes, you wouldn’t be getting any reason from me. I see this with perfect reason. Trust me. I have perfect clarity on this right now. Because I know even in a scenario where Apple is done or in the crapper, it will see a very sharp rebound.

And the rebound will be in complete proportion to the sell-off. It happens in equal and opposite force. Apple is down 100 in 12 days. It can be up 100 in the next 12 easy. So don’t allow yourself to get screwed here.

Finally, and this is an important point, I think at this point it may do us some good to spam investor relations. But only with the following. We need Apple to come out and state that there is a clear difference between having supply to hit internal targets and having supply constraints relative to the demand curve.

Apple needs to come out and say that they are fully confident in being able to deliver iPhone sales that will be in-line not only with their expectations but with the consensus. If they do that, Apple will be at $700 by January. I can promise you that. That’s all they need to do here. We have plenty of supply to meet expectations but not enough to meet demand which is off the charts.

So if you have time, please send Apple Investor relations an e-mail asking Tim Cook to come out and defend claims of the company’s supply issues. But make sure you hit the highlights that I’m talking about. And that’s this:

1. There are reports that imply that Apple is going to miss on earnings.
2. This has caused Apple’s stock to lose 20% of its value in just 6-weeks. Which is far too much for the company to not do anything to defend itself.
3. The reports claim that Apple is going to fall short of expectations due to supply.
4. Supply constrained is a relative term. A company can be “supply constrained” relative to demand. But it can be not so supply constrained relative to expectations.
5. Apple would do well to re-affirm its guidance.
6. Perhaps Apple should give clarity on claims by its manufacturers.

Now obviously one person sending Apple investor relations an e-mail and call would get brushed off. But if all of you do this, then it will have an impact. You could end-up getting something out of them. Also, if you call and talk to them, they might slip and say something. And if they do, send it to me and I’ll publish it. I’ll make sure it gets huge airtime.

You need to fight for you life right here. Spend the time to send an e-mail and call each of these people. I’ve spoken with Nancy Paxton and Joan Hoover in the past. It’s not easy getting their contact info. It’s here for you all. Fight for your life. Don’t sleep on this. You need to carefully construct your argument and call them.

You need to explain to them that there is a huge difference between being supply constrained such that it will cause you to fall short of expectations and being supply constrained as a result of crazy high demand that is just off the charts.

Remember the argument. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co CEO Gou claimed that they are shipping Apple far fewer iPhones than Apple has ordered. What does that mean? Does it mean Apple has ordered 80 million for the quarter and Hon Hai was only able to make 60 million which will allow Apple to make their quarter? Or did Apple order 55 million and only 20 million are being filled. Does Apple still stand behind its guidance they gave two weeks ago?

That question right there alone could do a lot. Because if Apple still stands behind its guidance it gave two weeks ago, then that says that Apple is going to be fine. We need a statement from Apple. A statement will cause the stock to rally huge. Make sure you e-mail and cc each of these people. You get the argument. Find the links to the article and carefully word your questions. Call them and leave messages. If they get overwhelmed it will get them to put out a statement to defend the company.

Apple Investor Relations
1(408) 974 – 3123 (general number)

Nancy Paxton
Investor Relations

paxton1@apple.com
1(408) – 974 – 5420

Joan Hoover
Investor Relations

hoover1@apple.com
1(408) – 974 – 4570

Apple Public Relations Executive
Steve Dowling

dowling@apple.com

Lauren Vroom
Press Relations

lvroom@apple.com
1(408) – 862 – 5533

4:47 PM — I spoke with Apple investor relations today and they said that they were very plain, directly and clear that they feel extremely confident in where they are in terms of their rump-up in production. In fact, they said as of today, nothing has changed from when it issued guidance two weeks ago and that it still plans to have the iPhone 5 launched in over 100 countries including China. They said nothing could materially change in just two weeks time from a production point of view. Investor relations was very forthcoming in my conversation with them. They seemed a bit irritated by the almost flow of misinformation out there.

But the biggest thing that I took from the conversation is that they reaffirmed their guidance in so many words. And then when I asked them outright, ‘So then I assume you re-affirm your guidance,” and then they back-peddled. They said we can’t say that privately, but would have to do that in a public forum with a press release. But it was very clear to me that they reaffirm their guidance and they don’t feel supply constrained and that Hon Hai was full of total shit. She actually did seem a little pissed about the fact that Hon Hai was making such ludicrous statements.

1,450 Responses to Bullish Cross Live

  1. I imagine everyone is starting to think about Plan B and Andy certainly hinted today of an upcoming discussion on a go-forward plan if we somehow stay in thes ridiculous conidtions for any more than a week. I have been messing around with the simple idea (on paper only) of switching my Jan spreads to Feb. After crunching some numbers I was surprised to see how little value I lose (roughly 4% of the potential value assuming the same closing price on expiration). I wanted to check with other BC members to see if these results make sense versus their projections.

    Now like any plan B there are good and bad aspects to this strategy. On the good side, the time expiration is increased which in this case eases some clock pressure and potentially takes advantage of good Q1 earnings which could significantly juice the stock price. This may also allow for taking losses in CY12 although we would have to be careful navigating the wash rules. On the bad side in my particular case a near term recovery to $650ish would allow for exiting at breakeven, but Feb spreads would require higher pricing to achieve the same near term result. Of course, as unlikely as it may seem, Apple could miss Q1 earnings in which case a Plan C would be needed if there was anything left to drop into that plan (Plan C will probably just involve me and a bottle of Whiskey which is saying something since I don’t drink).

    So rather than dwelling on pain and missery, lets get some dialog going on this or other ideas for dealing with the “this time is different” situation. By the way, I very much doubt that “this time is different” and I am firmly in the camp of knowing (based on high probabilities without guarantees) a strong rally soon cometh. What say you?

    • Thanks. I’m thinking of moving to Jan-14 leaps. Why move out only 1 month?

      • I suspect some would say that 1 year is a long time to wait for one’s account to recover. In my case, I already have a small position in 2014 and I would rather not add to it until we have the next mega correction. Anyway, your thought is certainly an option that should be considered.

      • Because Feb 13 is almost as depressed as Jan 13, whereas Jan 14 is not.

        And Feb 14 may only be a month, but we will have real results for Q1 and guidance for Q2

        • Sorry

          And Feb 13 may only be a month, but we will have real results for Q1 and guidance for Q2

    • Makes a lot of sense to me. Basically, we’d be banking here on a reasonable January earnings report. Andy thinks the company is doing well and if so, it may only become clear after the report is in…which is after Jan op ex. Why don’t you bring it up to him?

      • and how have we done banking on the past 2 earnings reports?

        • Yes… point well taken… the past two reports have been disappointing no doubt. Thus far they can both be somewhat dismissed due to either rumors of new products slowing demand for existing ones or outright inventory drains in preparation for product introductions. Q1 is Apple’s flagship quarter and a similar miss would make this Q’s bearishness look like a slight disagreement among friends. But I don’t believe (yet) that Apple has a demand problem. I think their eco-system is still extremely appealing. Heck, they just sold 3M ipad/mini’s in one weekend and let’s not forget China and the key agreement they will soon have there with China Mobile (or is it Unicom… I always get those two mixed up). In any event, I am willing to bet (and I am… heavily) that Q1 earnings brings back the Apple we all know and love. One way or another, we will not have to wait long to find out!

    • I’d very much like to hear how Andy interprets the numbers as the day starts tomorrow because if we really think we’re heading a lot lower before we turn up then I’d be inclined to shave off some commons and buy spreads once we get the turnaround signal. It seems like a great opportunity to get these further dated spreads if one has the cash.

    • + 1. Two and Two is still Four. They have great new products, and the election was a positive. People were concerned with Steve Jobs death, because of his creativity, but Ive seems to be qualified to go forward. Andy is not a stupid or dishonest! Keep the faith, and as Nick Nansen suggests that he and AZ are on the same page. If we all had all our money in 2014 options would we be concerned? I doubt it!

  2. We didn’t take advantage of the uptrend nor this downtrend. I even bought back some short legs with the last little cash on Monday, thinking I could recover fast; now naive I was.

    We shouldn’t just cross our fingers for better. We need to consider the worst scenario as well. If there are still no buyers showing up is there possiblity that this train wreck would crash at 500 before bounce back to 570?

    • yep. agreed.

    • A continued train wreck is possible but the odds are mounting against it. For me, it would be difficult to take any positions to protect/hedge the possibility of more downside given the technical barriers present. For instance, we could take a short position here but based on what evidence? That it feels like we will slide further? It certainly does feel that way, but that is the natural side effect of these cycles. At some point the big boys step in, make a killing and leave behind them a sea of devastated retail investors who couldn’t take the pressure any more and sold at the worst possible time.

      • That’s what we have been saying for the past 10 points.

        • Challenging for sure and yet that is the nature of the game we play. At each point you analyze. As the situation evolves, you re-analyze. To take your point further, even shorting back at $590 would have been a rough call given the conditions and with Andy even stating $574 was a possibility. Apple offers the further difficulty in that when it recovers you can barely blink your eyes before its up $30 to $50 making it nearly impossible to sell a position and wait for the dust to clear before getting back in (I have been burned several times trying that move).

      • Yep, anything is possible in the hysteric market. The short position still does not make sense because on fundamentals AAPL is not overvalued and it would be gambling on sentiment alone.

  3. Anyone willing to comment on Cobra’s take on AAPL or the markets lately?

  4. Anybody know anything about Bespoke Investment Group, which issued this today?
    (I’m curious; not panicky. I believe in the BC spreads!)

    ————————
    Apple (AAPL) Bear Markets: IS a ’4′ Handle in the Cards?
    WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2012
    After a rally of nearly 800% from its January 2009 lows, shares of Apple (AAPL) are on pace to finish the day down 20% from their all-time closing high of 702.10 back in September. Over the last ten years, this would only be the tenth time that the stock has experienced a decline of 20% or more without rallying 20% in between. As shown in the table below, based on the last ten years of data (not including current decline), shares of AAPL have averaged a total decline of 30.29% over a period of 81 calendar days. In terms of the stock’s current price that would translate to a low of $489.40 around December 8th.

    • if you take out the financial crisis their 30% avg decline goes under 20%.
      Its an internet pump and dump rag.

    • I see several negative articles and some positive articles all day long. AAPL is extremely oversold on hourly, daily and weekly charts. Cody Villard at marketwatch is buying AAPL at this level.
      http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/

      • I subscribed to his newsletter for about 6 months. His folllowers took some big hits on trendy stuff like Riverbed so I was not impressed. But tks for posting.

  5. Frank Brancato

    St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) still looks good.
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/STLFSI

  6. To add to Jack’s comments earlier from his conversation with Katy Huberty, my wealth management guys at Morgan Stanley in Asia also issued their first buy recommendation for AAPL (separate from the Katy’s group which is Equity Research). Funnily enough, a separate senior banker from MS also suggested this was a good entry point.

    Sell-side manipulation? Nah…

    FYI I was a former commodities trader/banker at Morgan Stanley, left earlier this year after 10+ years to start my own advisory/investment firm in Singapore. MS still has my personal and corporate trading accounts, so I get their research and ideas.

    Stay strong, BC subs. And kudos to Andy of steel nerves and balls.

    • Tks for sharing!

      • iqbal.shamsul

        my mate at Sanford Bernstein in Singapore also telling me they’re coming out with an AAPL buy recommendation.

        Sell side is coming around.

        Another sign of bottom: FT finally calling “investor sentiment change” on AAPL, AFTER the stock moves down 20%.

        • Good stuff. I’m mostly in cash and thinking about a bunch of Jan 560/580s for a double….

          • iqbal.shamsul

            That’s probably a decent idea, hope you didn’t have to capitulate to access the cash.

            I’m too long Jan risk already, but after losing sleep last night (woke up at noon local, lol) thinking about scenarios, I might reinforce my balls with Kevlar and dig in for a long haul, holding on to some of my Jans to expiry if it makes sense.

            EBR = suggestive of that M14 marksman variant (classic American rifle)

          • EBR17, I like your idea of JAN 560/580. Have you given much thought to other possibilities? Playing NOV or DEC, for instance? FEB? Straight calls? If so, I’d be interested in hearing what you reckon are the pros and cons. More down would not surprise me and yet I cannot help but think that a huge risk is seeing AAPL jump, say, 5% in the pre-market one of these days followed by maybe another quick 5%, only to see the stock either drop again or just sit there for the next two months. That really strikes me as ‘max pain’ for people sitting on cash.

  7. stella0215, I don’t think Apple ever raised their guidance after the earning call.

  8. Old article but worth a read – re timing to buy and sell Apple by a credible analyst. seems like the period after a launch, not to mention 5 or 6 launches, is the worst time to buy…….ahhhh so now I understand…..

    http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57496595-37/when-is-the-right-and-wrong-time-to-buy-apple-stock/

  9. Travis Lewis posted a piece on his AAPLPAIN “AAPL is being sold off for tax purposes. As it currently stands, taxes will significantly rise January 1st 2013. Even at $560, AAPL is still up 38.3% YTD. Funds are locking in their gains at current rates. You also have a little source of funds selling in AAPL as funds needed to raise cash to meet their commodity margin. — Realize why AAPL is selling off. It is not selling off for a 100% true fundamental reason. The stock is reacting to what has to happen, not what the future holds or intrinsic value reasons. The stock will have to re-value itself. Think of this tax selling just like the Nasdaq 100 rebalance of 2011. The stock had to drop due to forced selling. AAPL could have announced they won a $200B lawsuit and the stock would still have dropped. Just the way stock mechanics work. This will be no different. Any type of selling begets all types of selling. Over time, the stock will re-value itself to reflect its current balance sheet.” Guess my question would be HOW MUCH TIME and are we still looking at a big sell off? I seem to remember when that Nasdaq rebalancing occurred in 2011 it didn’t take very long to correct back to then current prices. What do you guys make of this?

    • Cramer’s said to sell AAPL for the same reason. it went down almost 4% today in one day. The long-term cap gains tax change is from 15% to 20%. so in one day’s price action, it already almost equaled the different in tax liability, if you were just holding common.

    • This makes sense at the top (take a nice profit and call it a year) but none at all down here unless one feels that AAPL doesn’t have 5% left in it over the next two months. If I believed that I would sell too, but sell because of downside risk, not tax reasons.

      And the big question: If funds are “locking in their gains”, does that mean that they will be out of AAPL until January?

    • Jim Sheppeck (squinky)

      What’s to prevent investors from selling now, booking profits in 2012, and buying back in one month later to make Apple go parabolic?

  10. iqbal.shamsul

    Gals and guys,

    Some highlights from Toni Sacconaghi’s latest piece on AAPL issued today by Bernstein Research. He met with Tim Cook and Pete Oppenheimer yesterday. Basically they’re overweight with a PT of $ 800, but Hon Hai issues are there but iPhone 5 supply “increased dramatically”. Stock expected to remain range-bound. So our P/E range for the quarter might hold, but they acknowledge lack of short-term catalysts (to go to 800??)

    QUOTE

    - On balance, Apple executives seemed relaxed and projected a positive tone about the company’s plans and direction. We did not find executives to be as ebullient as we have seen them in previous meetings, perhaps reflecting what we (and consensus) expect is more modest growth going forward and near-term supply constraints

    - Apple executives did not provide updates or comment on current quarter’s business or supply
    issues. Our belief is that supply constraints on iPhone 5 continue to exist and have not dramatically changed; that iPhone gross margins might be lower than at the start of previous cycles, but are likely to show improvement akin to what Apple has experienced with previous iPhones; and that iPad Mini margins are low and lower than the larger iPad (we currently model 24%).

    - iPhone 5 supply constraints. Apple did not provide an update on the status of iPhone 5 availability, and reiterated its Q4 earnings call statements that it expects China to get the iPhone 5 in December and that it plans to roll-out to 100 countries by the end of the quarter. Tim Cook noted that not all iPhone 5 country launches were locked in, with some ability to still push out launch dates, or (in some cases) pull them forward, if needed. He stated that comments made by Foxconn’s Terry Gou yesterday that iPhone 5 demand was “falling short of huge demand” were not inconsistent with his Q4 earnings call statements that supply had improved significantly in October but was still constrained.

    - CEO Cook stated that he was “bullish” on smartphone market growth, and that carrier expansion remained very important both in existing and new countries. That said, we did not get the feeling that Apple was likely to develop a new, lower priced iPhone in the near future to address emerging/lower priced markets, which is something we believe could make it difficult for iPhone to grow faster than the smartphone market beyond 2013.

    - Financial guidance. CFO Oppenheimer stated that Apple’s philosophy and process for providing guidance was exactly the same as it has been historically – when pressed on why actual results had much more modestly eclipsed guidance over the last few quarters, he stated that it was “not as easy as it looks” and that changes in commodity prices or different product cycles have material impacts on quarters. We contend that Apple’s YoY growth for the last two quarters has been notably lower, making equivalent size beats more difficult, without Apple guiding for negative YoY revenue and EPS growth.

    - Apple’s stock has been weak recently, reflecting (1) year end selling as investors look to lock in strong gains, particularly in the face of recent incremental uncertainty; and (2) some rotation out of the name by growth-oriented investors. Given the lack of near-term catalyst, we believe that the stock could continue to be range-bound or drift down further in the near-term.

    UNQUOTE

    • Good news: earnings intact
      Bad news: no short-term reason to think AAPL is a buy down here

      Very useful! Thanks.

  11. iqbal.shamsul

    One last highlight I omitted, basically reinforcing some of Horace Dediu’s analysis on margins vs capital spending cycles. Might put pressure on near term EPS beats (via margin compression).

    “Capital investments and impact on margins. CFO Oppenheimer noted that Apple’s significant
    investments in PPE (>$9B in FY 12, principally for tooling and manufacturing process equipment at
    partners) had been made principally to secure supply, but he also suggested that over time, it
    could/should help overall margins – all else being equal – given that Apple was essentially funding cap ex for its suppliers. As we see it, this is a skillful use of Apple’s balance sheet, and in essence is
    leveraging the company’s strong balance sheet to improve its income statement. We believe – however – that in the near term, particularly since cap ex additions were back end loaded into 2H 2012, that gross margins could be pressured, as Apple absorbs depreciation expense on lower volumes. Over time, as volumes improve, we see this as being a new – and potentially significant – source of margin improvement.”

    • Hi Iqbal,
      I have invested mostly in 655-705 Jan spreads. After reading your notes I have a feeling that stock may not recover by Dec 31st 2012. Do you have any idea what range bound AAPL
      Will stay during the rest of this quarter?

      • iqbal.shamsul

        AZ has addressed these points numerous times, including a bunch of helpful charts along the way. “Recovery” to me means finding an opportunity to exit at a reasonable valuation, even if that ends up at a loss. That’s still a (strong) possibility even if the price targets aren’t met.

        To your points:
        -The Jan options expire on the 19th. So just under three calendar weeks of trading action to consider, roughly (less the New Year break) in Jan.

        - Since you’re a subscriber, you have also seen the historical P/E ranges that might apply. AZ has laid down the case, so worthwhile revisit and make up in your mind when are your exit points.

        YMMV.

        FWIW I am also mostly invested in the Jan 650-750 spread.

  12. whats happening to aapl is almost the opposite 2 what happened last jan’s parabolic upward rally,the market was adjusting numbers upwards,now the market is adjusting them downward
    i also believe that the street is pricing a miss in Q1
    Tim cooks track record with @ least 2 misses in less than one year, is not exactly steller !
    again people were used 2 aapl low bowling guidance now people think the guidance is suspect and should go down

    everyone knows the i phone is the main driver 2 earnings & if aapl cannot sell enough and/or the costs of making the iPhone 5 are higher(which seems the case) then all numbers have 2 come down and therefore the PE that everyone says is very low will no longer look low!
    it does not matter how good ur product is if u can’t make it when needed especially with all the competition now
    the completion was non existent last year in the i phone and i pad,not the case anymore

    the i phone 4s had an advantage of almost having identical hardware 2 to the iPhone 4(software was the main change),therefore the manufactureing bugs were already ironed out
    more importantly this drove margins upward(no new form factor,wall street speak)
    can’t c the current price going up with no catalyst until jan earning,thats if aapl doesn’t warn in the interim!
    i truly hope am wrong

  13. So a bit of a mystery here. Many hours after Andy’s 4:47 post about his talk with IR and giving the e-mail addresses for them, we have long time posters to BC asking questions like, “did investor relations respond to Andy?” and “what is the e-mail address?” and then I see “Problem is depending on market conditions the options u guys have could be an issue.”

    “U GUYS HAVE”?

    It would appear to me that at least some, if not many, of the posts to this board come from non-BC subscribers who are unable to access Andy’s BC Posts but can access the board (via twitter?). Non-BC subscribers with no skin in the game, possible not 1 share of Apple, high school kids for all we know. So when I see some of you being apparently more influenced by the board than by Andy’s analysis I worry for you.
    I know many of you are real people, but I plan to concentrate on what Andy has to say and ignore the bulk of the board.

    Thank you.

    • Laser sharp focus on Andy’s analysis is what compelled new subscribers to go into Jan 655/705′s at a $25-26 cost basis. The vast majority here hang on every word Andy says for better or for worse and I don’t think you should be too worried about this phenomenon.

  14. iqbql, thank you for your precious info. could you please say the exact date and possibly time when the sacconaghi’s report has been issued by Bernstein Research? As it comes directly from apples top management and it must have been widely circulated, is an extremely influential statement. To me, at first sight, it sounds rather pessimistic. It could account for yesterday’s precipice. But if it is being issued today, well, we may be out for some more heavy rain.

    • Manish Mallick

      +1 the report does not sound good at all.

      • +1 It actually confirms what Han Hoi chairman is saying and Cook seems to suggest it is not inconsistent with his con call comments – well, that sucks big time then

        • Take it back “He stated that comments made by Foxconn’s Terry Gou yesterday that iPhone 5 demand was “falling short of huge demand” were not inconsistent with his Q4 earnings call statements that supply had improved significantly in October but was still constrained”. Here’s the key sentence – read it again, guess it is suggesting that supply is falling short of huge demand but doesn’t suggest that guidance will not be met or anythin like that

          • “He stated that comments made by Foxconn’s Terry Gou yesterday that iPhone 5 demand was “falling short of huge demand” were not inconsistent with his Q4

            Shouldn’t that be SUPPLY was “falling short of huge demand”?

        • depends on whether or not you read it as actually typed, or read it as obviously intended: SUPPLY is falling short of huge demand vs. DEMAND is falling short of huge demand.

          Not a minor mistake.

    • iqbal.shamsul

      I think the report reinforced AZ’s conversation with AAPL Investor Relations, honestly. A lot of the info have been circulated already, including on the earnings call. This could be an indirect way that TC and Oppenheimer “affirm” their guidance, by the way, without issuing a public statement mid-quarter (which I guess would be unprecedented, to my very limited knowledge).

      I got the report today via a buddy at Bernstein. Since it’s dated today I am guessing it will likely be in circulation Streetside and media by market open (commentaries to follow during trading hours, I reckon).

      By the way,

      • +1 Agree on guidance confirmation. Not sure, if that is enough though – they need to beat top line by 20% for modest EPS growth

      • Any idea if they will reaffirm their buy rating and price target?

        • iqbal.shamsul

          The literal bottom line: “Apple remains our top pick and we rate it outperform with a target price of $800.”

          YMMW.

  15. I have not seen green apples in a long long time…would really like to hear what Andy thinks about 600-650 spread. 655-705 is pretty much a break even play at this time i.e get your initial capital back and run

  16. bulltrade, to get our intitial capital back on 655-705, we need to see 680ish…
    with respect to Sacconaghi’s report, the general tone is just kinda of subdued. Confirm a low-profile EPS, won’t excite the markets. And what one gets from the report is the feeling that the second half of 2013 is going to be really good, but one shouldn’t expect miracles from this Xmas. Any different readings than mine, very welcome

  17. Stocktwits says
    Lindz
    $AAPL Jeffries reiterating 900 target today Oppenheimer saying bounce to 620 as oversold
    Nov. 8 at 4:58 AM
    1
    • Reply • Like • Flag • More

  18. Now Rocco saying the opposite but read disclaimer now long April calls 2013
    http://www.thestreet.com/story/11760673/2/apple-sell-off-about-a-year-too-soon.html

  19. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Gross Margin Deep Dive 2.0: GM Headwinds Not Secular; Raising CQ4 GM Estimate; Buy – Jefferies
    http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/2012/11/apple-nasdaqaapl-gross-margin-deep-dive.html

    • Thanks for sharing. All the number looks positive. It’s going to be a wild ride. Whoever holds current positions to mid Dec may be richly rewarded but also need to take on huge risk. Crazy but is anyone surprised? There is no easy money.

  20. Oppenheimer: Apple’s Stock Is Ready To Jump Back To $620
    By Jay Yarow | Business Insider – 6 minutes ago
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oppenheimer-apples-stock-ready-jump-131300508.html

  21. BankingonAppl

    Anybody losing weight and I don’t mean your pocketbook!
    I have been here since July 11. I road the Oct 11 and Nov11 and May12 crap.
    For me this time is a little different. It is different because I am basically all in for Jan13
    To allow me to sleep at night I did 2 things yesterday.
    I rolled My jan 14 800-850 down to Jan 14 680-700 (about $4 today) I still end up with a nice gain
    I rolled my April 700-725 down to 590-600 I still end up with a gain
    I sold my Jan13 600-650′s. My average cost was $19 and I got $10. Some of that went into jan13 570-580 at $4.10 My $19 investment in the 600-650 will turn into a $25 net on the 570-580. So I only make $6 on my $19 (30%) I can live with that. I also rolled some of it out to July 610-630 and Jan14 680-700
    Yes I sold at a ridiculously low valuation. But I also was able to buy new spreads at the same ridiculously low valuation. A month ago I never thought I would be buying jan14 spreads under the $800 mark. But I have bought at 700 for a 5 bagger
    I end up getting all my 600-650 investment back and a return which is better than any investment in any other type of stock
    I am holding all my other Jan13 investments 645-665, 655-705, 670-690 I will follow Andy on these. I do believe the probability of Apple bouncing 50-70 to be very very high and I will get out of these spreads when they have some value and only when Andy says to.
    For me I had to take some risk off of the table. Like many here I went down over 7 figures. I had to preserve some capital to ensure I could continue investing.
    I am not recommending others do this. I am just ensuring I can now think calmly.
    Rally Apple rally

    • Banking….I too have been seriously considering how can I maneuver to preserve and maybe profit. Giving myself a little more time. That may be a fatal flaw. I hope not. Rolling down and out sounds like a much safer option.

    • This type of comment is helpful to all in this environment. Thanks for sharing your perspective/action.

  22. There will be so many folks ready to dump at 200DMA, then at 600-610 area and then at 620-630 that it makes too difficult for BC crowd to even break even…those dreams of making 4-5x capital were just that…we were way too one sided a community and are getting slaughtered for that…no one talked about risk management and I hold myself responsible for fucking with my financial future…most of us long timers came here because we realized the huge value in Apple at 300s and are now trying to figure out how to preserve the base capital….getting out without a loss in Jan is almost a miracle now..fingers crossed…anyone who says is not panicked with BC portfolio is full of fucking BS

    • Man do you ever stop? On tuesday Andy said he is still very confident in the 655-705 jan spread. One day passed and it went $20 lower on a huge market wide sell off. That’s it. One day. Can’t wait till we’re at a 16+ P/e going into mid january and everybody that sold here will be crying again.

      • That’s the type of attitude that has fucked many of us…the moment someone presents the -ve view, ppl get worked up and pile on…everyone made fun of Davidro…well, we would have been laughing to the bank if we played a bit conservatively together…how long have u been here and how much % of your investment is at stake with BC? I am freaking out…stopped looking at my acct a week back

        • A year, a large %, probably my marriage depends on January. Oh I don’t look either at the acct either. It’s not an attitude I just believe in the analysis.

          • I had signed a contract to build a new home for next summer…will need to cancel out of it…was planning to take the money after Jan expiration and lock it away for down payment…now, have to explain to wife and kids of why I am pulling out of the beautiful home….dreams shattered man…I am not selling yet but this is certainly not easy to wade through…too much risk for too less time window….this sell off never gave us a time to recalibrate…has been worse than 2008

            • Manish Mallick

              same here Bulltrade. my dreams r in tatters as of today. However, we know there is a bounce coming, not a huge one but there is one coming. there is still hope given the holiday quarter. Lets hold tight and get out at the first major bounce. if you wanna discuss further, my email is manishdmallick@yahoo.com. Most stressful period ever.

          • That is the attitude they had in the Titanic….ship can never go down. Total denial of reality. Past performance is no predictor of future results. It works great looking backwards after the fact, but going forwards is a big risk. It may work or one may get wiped out due to being allocated like BC.

    • We can expect a lot of movement in the stock between now and January. If AAPL were at 558 the day after earnings, I bet it will have had a wild ride. Given that, I’d like to hear ideas on how to react NOW. I’m not looking for epic blowouts and I’m not looking for 10-baggers, but this must be fertile ground for finding a triple somewhere within the next three months.

  23. I just wanted add for all those screaming yesterday” why didn’t we sell at 705″? Selling in September was never the strategy. The plan was to hold the Jan spreads until Jan and collect full value. Andy never mentioned trading in and out of them. The model portfolio is currently designed to make a certain % per year then compound those returns next year. If you didn’t understand the plan going in, why would you buy the spreads?

    • So,u are convinced of getting full value even now? We would be lucky to get out with original capital…

      • Why are you so convinced we won’t see at least a 15 p/e this quarter which has happened in every quarter for years? That’s $662.4 at a bare minimum.

        • Well, we just hit the LOWEST PE ever yesterday too – and the quarter ends 2 days after expiration…so, it can drag itself to 620 on expiration and to 660 in 2 days after that…so, meets your 15PE if it has to but after expiration..if it is still below 620 a few days before expiration, how many will hold through it? You need 660 in Dec to make decisions not in Jan…

          • Ok so you are assuming the absolute worst possible scenario which would mean everyone we know about technicals, valuation goes out the door for the next 2.5 months. In that case yes I’m fucked too, but come on. You really think we’re going much lower and the rally won’t be huge. It could be starting today. 620+ by thanksgiving is not unreasonable.

            • If it bottoms here, we can probably get to 620 next month…the one technical that worries me big time is the no of days and how far below it is from 200DMA…only happened during financial crisis…right now, 200DMA is 30 points away and would be a huge resistance

    • Shaun Abraham (renjixb)

      actually that’s way incorrect. AZ wrote that we would seriously look into selling the 600-650 at $40 (beside saying that AAPL at $700 before earnings was it getting ahead of itself). We were close to $40 for that spread.

      Now, why do you think that is? Keeping in mind as we get into the last qtrs opex, every price movement is magnified due to time left.

      He didn’t like more profit?
      He wanted to roll it up to the 700-750 immediately for a greater return?

      OR

      To wait for a inevitable correction and reposition to a easy double spread?

      • That’s true, but his plan was to buy more 655-705 from the 600-650 proceeds,in which case people would really be losing their shit. He never intended to sell the 655-705, so we’re both correct.

        • Shaun Abraham (renjixb)

          we wont know unless we hear from him….but i really doubt it would be to reposition to a riskier spread.

          think about it. AZ Q3 EPS estimate was reduced as was his TTM. He would have to go out and assume a higher P/E to TTM to get comfortable with the 655-705. His purchases of the 655-705 I’m guessing where at $25 earlier in the year and most recently at $3 (where just a rise to $620 will make that great).

          I really believe he expected a correction either in Oct or Nov, and was planning on using those funds to buy the easiest double for jan13. Now the question of if he would have bought at 650, 600, 580 is up for debate.

          • I can not speak for Andy. I sold some Oct position at $700 high. (was ready take profit that day from the 655~705 position too but backed out due to tax concerns for 2012) I would say even if I was all cash after 09/21, I would be buying on the way down from 650, 630, 600…

            • I would have taken drawdown from 630 all day…so, selling at 700 was so much a slamdunk in hindsight…I would be very intrigued to understand why a smart investor like Andy didn’t go all cash…Jason Schwartz did…but he sucks at calling bottom which Andy rocks at….so, if we had gone to even 50% cash, life would have been very different…this is one coulda should I hope I don’t have to remember for too long

              • It’s close. Andy hinted at selling at $40 gain…I remembered that spread was at $38.5 or something like that. I don’t know it was due to the fascination of round number or I was just being greedy at the time…so I hold off.

                Of course I had the stupid concern that I may be getting “too much” in 2012 where my tax is going to kill me. I believe anyone would take a fat tax bill over a wipe out any time. Hindsight is so clear and may help future trades. But I do agree we need a plan now for Jan 2013. Holding and hoping can be one but we need plan B and C.

  24. Just imagine you are a sub to a newsletter or just an investor that is short Apple; they are very happy right now waiting for it to go lower which it very well may but very soon the short squeeze and bottom will be in! The sentiment will change so fast, this is close! They will look at 530-560 the way we are looking at 700 and before you know it we will be back at 640-650. The trend will have resumed up and we have learned how to trade better and also learned alot more about ourselves I say thats worth the subscription!

  25. i was hoping we open in the red and close in the green

  26. Shaun Abraham (renjixb)

    i like bankingonaapl play to roll out his spreads….look even though you’ve taken a 80-90% hit on your portfolio…there are spreads that you can easily buy right now that return 500% and return your principle

    freaking Jan 14 680-700 (about $4 today) returns you back to your principle. What does 700 mean by Jan14? How much cash is AAPL adding in between now and Jan14? Assuming AAPL has a better latter 2013 to improving margins…you see how ridiculous this is.

    at some point we have to consider a move like this.

  27. Weipeng Huang

    Premarket AAPL volume: 181.9K. Hm…interesting, some institutional buying?

  28. Headline on MarketWatch:

    “Oppenheimer calls Apple oversold, ‘time to buy’”

    Near term target $620.

  29. Man Cramer really needs to STFU

  30. Andy,

    Just wanted to comment that your texts that Apple could be at $200 per share if Apple does not issue guidance seem very unprofessional, especially if I understand that they now go to the public. I really respect the work you have done in the past but there is a certain desperation in that message.

    Apple may or may not clarify on supply. I doubt they will officially but perhaps would through a remark from an exec instead of a press release. Apple can’t focus on day to day stock price to help out people with option spreads. I feel everyone’s pain as I have much myself at this time but texting that if Apple doesn’t do a release their shares may go to $200 is not good for your brand reputation.

    • -1
      Andy’s handling it exactly right.

    • jhart376,

      I agree with you while being reluctant to say so as I don’t want to pile on. It could be that AZ was being dramatic to make a point with IR (I’m sure he’d say it was done for emphasis as 200 is not ever a possibility according to his valuation model.)

      Anyway, I too really respect AZ’s work and want to wish him well in this difficult time when things don’t look good for any of us. I believe we are at the “end of the beginning” at least and we’ll see some institutional buying soon.

    • This was exaggeration for humorous effect on Andy’s part. Isn’t Apple holding well over $100 per share? Just how low do you think the stock could fall in the next three months?

  31. Get the retest over with early.

  32. Anyone using Boxcar and having problems. It suddenly stopped forwarding mail yesterday, no idea.

  33. there you go, whoever wanted a 550 print is about to get it.

  34. Seriously?

  35. Hey guys so Cramer just said that why he would buy apple no reason cause there is nothing on the pipeline. ok ok

  36. If we hit 0 we’re gonna bounce hard as shit.

  37. It irritates that Cramer comes out the morning after a huge down day and makes those comments right at market open just when apple is starting to rebound. OTH, guess it helps get us to extreme oversold sooner.

  38. Shaun Abraham (renjixb)

    I hope AZ learn from this
    people would be much happier with buying on corrections, getting 200% and trading out with a top call than holding aggressive spreads through any correction the qtr of opex.

    they would rather miss max profit than loss principle, because there is always a correction to 13 p/e in every year.

    eventually at some point, AZ will have to issue a top call and sell. He might be wrong/right but the analysis is the analysis and you will have to wait until we hit 13 p/e to buy back into long term spreads again.

    • +1000

    • disagree. i think what andy will learn from this is that people will complain no matter what unless he perfectly calls the tops and bottoms. look at what happened during the melt up. at the beginning, andy called the top and a lot of people sold. wasnt long before they all started compaining that they were missing out on the huge rally.

      i think we should return to a more hedged investment strategy like we had going for a bit there. where we are hedged both ways as well as spread over different expirations. it just sort of ended up gravitating back to an ‘all eggs in one basket’ strategy and everyone bought it because the case built up for january was so compelling.

      when we were playing a strategy like that, it felt like this subscription was essential to properly navigate the market. but now that we returned to an all-in on january, I feel like even a noob like me could come up with the ‘strategy’. the only thing I would probably not have is the BC community to vent and fall back on for support.

    • Manish Mallick

      Learning will be fine as long as he and us survive this tsunami:-) I am gonna be wiped out for life if apple does not recover soon.

  39. Market open – Apple red. AS was right – shut the fucking market down

  40. Going to 550 or 530 folks – should we sell and pile on puts? May be that will turn the tide

  41. i think everyone who is really panicking now should just roll into february. it will cost you 20-25% but you get earnings to bail you out.

  42. philip, i don’t see ho you calculate only a 25% cost for rolling into february. for the 655/705 I have amuch larger figure. Could you please specify? Thanks

  43. The first half hour of trading is always like the Wild West and As we hit 10 I’m starting to see slight rebounds in some of my other oversold stocks. I’d wait a bit before assuming the trend for today.

  44. There has been a lot of fear here recently and of course its understandable when you have such a drawdown but the question is this reasonable? Andy talks alot about how apple trades which means he relies on the past to predict the future to some extent and of course this is fallible. But he also understands the fundamentals of Apple very well. Just look at the guidance Apple gave – 52 Billion I think. Now do you believe apple will meet their guidance – to use Andy’s approach how many times in the past has Apple missed Apple’s guidance – not the markets but Apple’s? We are talking about an incredible company that is knocking everything out of the park right now. This 1st quarter, like the first quarter last year, is going to be HUGE.

    So what is happening now? 70% of Apple is owned by institutional investors – the people that are the most bullish on the stock! What are they doing now – abandoning Apple?? – a company that will have a 52 Billion dollar first quarter? No way. They are ALL taking advantage of and creating the sentiment – the election, the economy, Europe in order to book profits for year end and buy Apple back on the cheap and book profits again. This has happened before and is happening again now.

    Fundamentally Apple is in a better position that most, maybe even all companies on the planet – this sell off is not about weakness in Apple or its products. It is about greed and the same people that are driving this will drive the stock back up and the cycle will continue because greed will not end – it never does. So for those of us that have January spreads – yes there is a time constraint that can cause some sleepless nights and of course valid concern but know this sometime in the next 5 months it is certain Apple will reach a new all time high. And I personally thing in time for the Jan spreads – why because apple will rally into earnings because the profit will have been booked and the greed cycle will be in full swing and none of the big gun will want to miss when apple reports $65 Billion instead.

    Ipad/Iphone/Ipod/Mac under every tree – my month to gods ears.

  45. Anyone besides me having problems getting BC Live to refresh? I’m still stuck on yesterday. Comments are real time but Andy’s posts are stuck on yesterday……just wish the share price was! What the F@$! Thanks.