The Apple Daily Commentary (Public)

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WARNING ISSUED 12:15 PMApple has bottomed. Get long the stock. See below.

WARNING ISSUE 3:37 PM – If you’re a subscriber to the investment report — I think 95% of you are — it is very important that you read this page on crucial information (click the link) and that you read it today. If you were thinking about subscribing to the investment report, I would do that soon. If you’ve read everything in the investment report, the window for the full opportunity outlined in the report is closing. It’s better to take a draw down and get the full benefit than to risk waiting for a pullback and being priced out of the opportunity altogether.

10:10 AM — As noted in our posts for the last two days, the market and Apple would have to retest its lows before the stock can officially bottom. The market is down 170 points and yet Apple has retested its lows and is now rallying. I hope this presents a very important lesson to everyone. This is where you buy the stock, not on the way down. After we have some evidence of strength. This is very good strength. I think this is the bottom for Apple. There’s buying interest here.

10:31 AM — For those who also follow the investment report, I took a long position in Apple today based on the thesis in that report. So you should take a look.

12:11 PM — Apple has probably bottomed. If we get a breakout above the neckline, Apple is going much higher. Don’t drag your feet. I’ve laid out the case the best I can without walking you into the broker office and buying for you. If you’ve paid for the investment report, this is the day where I tell you. The biggest advantage of that report is starting to diminish. Pay close attention to what I’m doing. Classic inverted head & shoulders and it looks good.

1:15 PM — Ok. So we’ve gotten our rally to the neck-line. Now here comes the hard part. Right now, we’re still in a dangerous area. If Apple breaks this neck-line, I think we’re ready to rock and roll. But it still has to do so. Remember, we had the same set-up ahead of the WWDC and it ended in failure. It needs to break above $330 and I think at that point we could be read for a big rally. The SPY is also starting to look very good. But again, all of this depends on what Apple does here at resistance. The buying interest has been good all day. But how the stock reacts at resistance is the real measure of this buying interest.

2:15 PM — Apple is starting to struggle with that neck-line resistance. But no need to freak-out just yet. Sometimes an inverted head & shoulders will convert into an ascending triangle. This could be happening right now. As the chart below illustrate, if Apple pulls back a third time to the lower trend line, it’s possible that it could breakout from the triangle pattern which is also a very bullish pattern. It’s very common and during the QE2 rally, the SPY had multiple back to back ascending triangle that all panned out. I must have seen at least 10-20 ascending triangles between September and February that all broke out to the upside. In fact, we had an ascending triangle breakout just this past Monday on the SPY. We could be getting that here with Apple:

3:12 PM — Apple bumping against resistance again. If it gets above $130.00, it’s going to explode higher. Very bullish set up. In fact, the set-up suggests an intermediate move to $346.00 on a breakout. The measured move is calculated from the the $310 lows to the $328.00 neck-line or just about $18.00.

3:17 PM — Here’s the broad picture with Apple. The MACD on the daily is turning positive suggesting momentum is starting to turn to the upside. Apple showed a tremendous amount interest in the $320 area highly suggesting that this is indeed the low and it’s starting to breakout after 2 weeks of consolidation in this area. Moreover, Bullish Cross put an official buy rating on Apple which only happens when I’m very confident that we’re nearing a critical bottom. July is looking more pleasant by the moment. Apple just needs the interest to get it above $330 and we could be off to the races.

3:55 PM — Houston! We have lift-off. This is what happens you breakout. It’s going to be panic buying now. All the OMG I didn’t get to buy at the $310 level people are starting to rush in. Bullish Cross has been making a case for days. This is precisely why the daily commentary here is very important. Ascending Triangle / Inverted Head & Shoulders breakout after a retest of the lows at $320 as we’ve repeatedly mentioned for several days in a row now.

4:01 PM — Alright. That’s it for the daily commentary today. I hope everyone has been following what we’ve been doing. There’s always a very good reason for why we position the way we do. I’ll get to a full review of our commentary for the week. But right now, I got to pack up and get ready to bring everyone home fro the hospital. Pff. See how easy this is? Navigated a bottom while having twins! :-)

19 Responses to The Apple Daily Commentary (Public)

  1. Although you have to admit, it is very tempting to catch the “exact low”!

    I think we’re headed up, which should be confirmed by a higher price than yesterday’s high. If that is the case, then here are the fibo resistance levels coming up:
    $325.32
    $327.55
    $329.77
    $336.97
    $344.17
    $348.62
    $355.82
    $360.27
    $367.47

  2. And now it’s seeing some resistance at 325.

    With the S&P having broken below its support at 1270, if investors rush for the exits across the board, does this have the potential to keep AAPL down for a bit? If not dragging it to lower lows, perhaps keeping it in a tight range until earnings?

    • Potentially. You have to remember that Apple is a market leader. So if it turns around, the market usually soon follows. If Apple starts to show exceptional strength in the face of weakness, it says there’s real buying interest out there and other S&P stocks will probably follow. Think of it this way. Imagine you have someone interested in CAT. If they see Apple taking off, they’re going to be thinking: “Holy crap is money into the market right now? Maybe I should take my position before CAT starts to run as well.”

      So we’ll have to see how Apple trades. So far, it looks good. Even if it ends up red, that’s some very good strength in the face of a 200+ point sell-off.

  3. Thank for starting this new subscription site. I always felt bad by following your AAPL comments so closely over the years and making big money without compensating you in any way. Now you get to make some money and we all get our daily dose of Andy Zaky. Life is good! With Steve and Andy how could someone go wrong.

  4. I agree with Rand !! Apple being so strong broke through 200 MA now above 327.90 is making the NASDAQ go green & perhaps the Dow rebound it’s only -140 now !! You are awesome Andy ! Tell your wife she married well !!! Lol !!

  5. Andy , the premium for the 400 calls
    when apple was tradying at $325 was higher than now apple tradying at $328

    by def if the stock goes up . so the call premium ..by the delta. .. So the price going lower of the premium not that the stock is tradying higher would be accounted only by volatility ?

    i am just trying to get more informed.. thank you

    • I’m totally lost. I’m having a hard time understanding the question. So I’m just going to start firing in the dark and hope I’m answering your question. I try to stay away from greek symbols because it will tend to confuse the average person. Instead I like to just describe options behavior through volatility and confidence.

      If stocks go down hard, and people lose confidence in the long-term Apple thesis, options premiums get overly depressed. Pretty much shot. If stocks go higher and everyone is elated and you get all of these Apple’s going to $700 articles out there, options premiums will be over-inflated as a result of supply and demand.

      You have to consider this based on the environment we’re in. If a lot of people start to get confident that Apple is going to $500 this year, you’ll see the $400 calls appreciate from $7.00 to $18.00 in time at all. Even if Apple doesn’t go up that much because people will start to bid it up ahead of the move. So for example, suppose Apple breaks out above $365 to make new highs, you’re going to see all 2012 calls start to really skyrocket due to the renewed confidence.

      2013 options will go absolutely ape shit because not only would we have confidence, we have time value. So right now, all options premiums are highly undervalued not just based on time value and price, but due to a loss of confidence.

      I’m going to get to all of this soon.

  6. sorry

    by def if the stock goes up . so the call premium ..by the delta. .. So the price now lower of the premium NOW that the stock is tradying higher would be accounted only by volatility ?

  7. got it . thank you. sorry about my english again . Great anwert THANK YO UUU

  8. Where to now? Is there a reflexive short-term pullback likely? While I have some longer positions (thanks to you) I managed to find a little more capital end of day, the result of a day-trade, and need to consider my options. Perhaps more specifically, does a day, and finish like we had today result in overbought conditions in the short-term?

    • Tom — The Apple daily chart is extremely bullish right now. Moreover, Apple itself is not overbought. It’s actually fine. However, the SPY is very very overbought on the hourly. The most overbought I’ve seen in nearly a year.

  9. Andy, I’m a small individual investor, and one of the 5% w/o the investment report, but have little $$ to work with and can’t have a minimum of 100 shares of AAPL to write a covered call at this point. Could you at least tell me if owning the shares are required to make the trades within the report work, before I committ the $300? I have no intentions of writing naked calls. Thanks.

  10. moomintroll

    huh.. i guess some posts here are not relevant to the daily aapl trade and should be in the investment section.

  11. Had to delete those comments. Those need to be posted to the investment report page. Patience. I’m going to have a forum running after the weekend. And I’m also setting up the alert system as well.

  12. Thank you for your answer. 500% is awesome. 300% is great. Anything in the middle is heaven.

  13. Hi Andy,
    I just can’t tell you how thrilling it is to see the new service start with you doing a Babe Ruth and belting homers right out of the park. Congratulations! I’ve raised my AAPL stock position to 100% and am going to use the rest of my capital to leg into the spread soon. You really nailed this multi-day set up in AAPL. The IHS call should be hung on your wall like we used to hang the first dollar we recieved in a new business. And lastly, your ongoing comments on AAPL are so comforting to those of us that are fully committed!
    Congrats on the twins, best wishes to your wife, and we are all behind you 100%.
    All the best,
    Bert